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Long Horizon

Equity · Stocks · Started Dec 2022

Trades Own Strategy

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
41.0%
Max Drawdown
44.7%
Trades
232
Win Trades
57.8%
Profit Factor
3.20
Win Months
60.0%
Subscribe Full access for $99/month

About this strategy

Parnalia Equities Long Horizon is a long-only public equity strategy designed around a simple principle: exceptional investment opportunities often need time to play out.

The strategy invests in liquid publicly traded companies, generally with market capitalizations above $1 billion. Positions are selected with a medium- to long-term investment horizon and may remain in the portfolio for many months or multiple years when the investment thesis remains intact.

This is not a day-trading strategy. Rather than attempting to profit from short-term market movements, the objective is to identify attractive equity opportunities and allow successful investments sufficient time to realize their potential. New positions are generally initiated during the final hour of the trading day.

The strategy is compatible with IRA accounts and its relatively low turnover may also result in more investments qualifying for long-term capital-gains treatment in taxable accounts.

Examples of realized long-term investments:
MSTR: Held 723 days — $26.88 to $236.00 — +777.98%
NVDA: Held 744 days — $16.89 to $119.70 — +608.70%
CVNA: Held 486 days — $33.26 to $183.72 — +452.46%
UBER: Held 558 days — $29.44 to $64.45 — +118.92%
COST: Held 678 days — $489.82 to $906.86 — +85.14%

These examples illustrate the core philosophy of the strategy: identify compelling opportunities, maintain conviction through normal market volatility, and give successful investments the time required to compound.

Non-hedged Equity

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2022-0.5-0.5
202311.4-4.08.1-9.816.011.613.0-8.7-13.1-8.231.422.578.6
2024-3.516.75.5-15.411.13.81.5-8.39.211.624.3-16.836.0
20255.6-13.8-13.7-4.41.713.21.04.516.27.4-8.5-0.53.7
202618.5-1.8-4.212.016.71.6-12.58.840.8

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/27/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age45 months
C2 RankTop 1.6%
What it tradesStocks
# Trades232
# Profitable134
% Profitable57.8%
Avg trade duration201.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown44.7%
drawdown periodDec 06, 2024 - April 08, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)41.0%
Avg win$1,434
Avg loss$649

Ratios

W:L ratio3.15
Sharpe Ratio1.02
Sortino Ratio1.48
Calmar Ratio1.04

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.56
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life99.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)152.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)41.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.4%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status99.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)42.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity5.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss58.0%
Chance of 20% account loss20.5%
Chance of 30% account loss9.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)692
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)932
C2 Score984
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)877

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?186772
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$649
Avg Win$1,434
# Winners134
Sum Trade PL (losers)$63,585
Sum Trade PL (winners)$192,191
Num Months Winners27
# Losers98
% Winners57.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct4100

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table45

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)289827.09
Avg Position Time (hrs)4830.45
Avg Trade Length201.30
Last Trade Ago6

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.02
Daily leverage (max)1.84

Regression

Alpha0.05
Beta1.16
Treynor Index0.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.81
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.21
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.16
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.12
Hold-and-Hope Ratio1.27

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.40
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.01
df42
t1.94
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.06
Sortino ratio2.04
Upside Potential Ratio3.84
Upside part of mean0.75
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms19
N of observations43
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.40
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.04
r0.74
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.84
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error41
t(b)7.03
p(b)0
t(a)0.41
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)0.22
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.32
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.85
df42
t1.63
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.90
Sortino ratio1.54
Upside Potential Ratio3.32
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.37
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms19
N of observations43
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.32
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance0.04
r0.76
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.82
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error41
t(b)7.48
p(b)0
t(a)0.10
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)0.18
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
Mean0.38
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.25
df946
t2.38
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.28
Sortino ratio1.82
Upside Potential Ratio9.79
Upside part of mean2.04
Downside part of mean-1.66
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms532
N negative terms415
N of observations947
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.38
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.03
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error945
t(b)20.52
p(b)0
t(a)1.37
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.44
Treynor index (mean / b)0.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.33
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.10
df946
t2.09
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.13
Sortino ratio1.57
Upside Potential Ratio9.50
Upside part of mean2.02
Downside part of mean-1.68
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms532
N negative terms415
N of observations947
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.03
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error945
t(b)20.73
p(b)0
t(a)1.10
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)0.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.39
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.49
df130
t1.06
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.29
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.26
Sortino ratio2.24
Upside Potential Ratio10.31
Upside part of mean1.81
Downside part of mean-1.42
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms78
N negative terms53
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.39
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.02
r0.58
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error129
t(b)8.11
p(b)0.15
t(a)0.63
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.80
Treynor index (mean / b)0.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
Mean0.36
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.36
df130
t0.96
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.13
Sortino ratio2.01
Upside Potential Ratio10.07
Upside part of mean1.79
Downside part of mean-1.44
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms78
N negative terms53
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.36
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.02
r0.58
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error129
t(b)8.17
p(b)0.15
t(a)0.55
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.82
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.77
Treynor index (mean / b)0.33
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations43
Minimum0.81
Quartile 10.96
Median1.02
Quartile 31.10
Maximum1.31
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.07
Mean of quarter 41.18
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.31
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations947
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low16
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.01
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.05
Median0.12
Quartile 30.19
Maximum0.39
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.09
Mean of quarter 30.12
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations39
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.42
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.30
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.21
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.00
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.33
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.77
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-454511296
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)123
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.70
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.42
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.07
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.27
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.36
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.74
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.43
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.36
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.87
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.43
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.47
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.96
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.98
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.93

Trading record

Placed 302 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
CX long627Apr 29, 2025Aug 6, 2026$3,384
SLB long156Nov 4, 2025Jul 1, 2026$1,437
CNQ long141May 14, 2025Jul 1, 2026$958
DVN long124Nov 24, 2025Jul 1, 2026$609
COP long54Dec 12, 2025Jun 25, 2026$509
ALB long45Sep 12, 2025Jun 24, 2026$3,223
NEE long54May 16, 2025Jun 1, 2026$546
FRPT long73Mar 17, 2026May 20, 2026($1,538)
PFE long203Nov 14, 2025May 8, 2026$103
LHX long18May 15, 2025May 4, 2026$1,498
EL long33Jun 23, 2025Mar 9, 2026$340
IREN long221May 22, 2025Mar 9, 2026$5,836
ANET long28Jun 25, 2025Feb 24, 2026$828
NVO long93Jan 21, 2026Feb 23, 2026($1,795)
ICLR long26Nov 25, 2025Feb 12, 2026($2,470)
STLA long480Dec 29, 2025Feb 6, 2026($1,902)
CORZ long170Jun 6, 2025Feb 5, 2026$484
CRM long20Dec 12, 2025Jan 29, 2026($1,018)
NIO long784Jul 17, 2025Dec 2, 2025$481
ETN long11May 12, 2025Nov 20, 2025$140
DELL long22May 14, 2025Nov 19, 2025$180
PDD long33May 12, 2025Nov 19, 2025$66
CAR long25Apr 24, 2025Nov 18, 2025$872
CLSK long247Aug 5, 2025Nov 14, 2025$75
JD long157Oct 6, 2025Nov 14, 2025($980)
DXCM long41May 5, 2025Oct 31, 2025($962)
XP long182Apr 25, 2025Oct 8, 2025$42
PINS long114May 19, 2025Sep 24, 2025$112
EW long51Apr 17, 2025Sep 18, 2025$150
INTU long6May 2, 2025Aug 22, 2025$164

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.