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Prosper-Relax-Compound

Equity · Stocks · Started Apr 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
20.8%
Max Drawdown
12.0%
Trades
35
Win Trades
68.6%
Profit Factor
16.20
Win Months
73.2%
Subscribe Full access for $76/month

About this strategy

“The big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting.” – C. Munger
“Smooth is fast” – Navy SEAL mantra and racing sport wisdom

PRINCIPLES & INTRO

I began saving and investing money at the age of 13 – when I earned my first money delivering newspapers.
The initial path from there, however, had been far from easy.

Why? I was looking for shortcuts, the big and bold trades, with spectacular returns and the desire to be “proven right”. A process fueled by impatience and the fear of missing the big opportunity. It cost me money, time and nerves. It was just a pitiful and exhausting game.

Things changed when I,
1) have progressed and matured, not simply in terms of age, but in wisdom and skills, which ultimately led me to turn all of that off and instead replace it with what is necessary to achieve success in this domain.
2) understood that I need to build and find the most effective processes and methods to reach the full potential of what is possible in markets. And..
3) when I realized, and I mean profoundly and in the depths of my heart and brain understood and accepted, that true wealth is built when you follow a process that is consistent, reliable and that is not interrupted – relentlessly and patiently.

That’s how fortunes have been and will be built, time after time.

And time… time is of essence. Because, yes, it will take time. There will be periods when others will think that it’s not going quick enough. And yes, others will feel the urge to take a detour and try “this and that”. Maybe some spectacular investment that made fantastic returns in a few weeks or months. And they might even be rewarded by doing that initially. In particular during relentless bull markets, when everyone and their pet is making money quick and easy while we keep grinding. Some might be fooled by that, but that’s the pitiful and exhausting game that I, myself, used to be familiar with (going back to my first paragraph).

So the bottom line is, not everyone will be capable of executing and keeping at it. Probably the majority won’t. And that’s ok, the investment mistakes of the majority are the advantages that we have. That’s why the majority gets majority results – average, at best. We can prosper if we calm down and relax (on a ground level), let go of the fear of missing out and instead, let the process of compounding do its work (it’s in the name). This is what I have created for myself and which enables me to live off my capital in a country with one of the highest costs of living in the world – without sleepless nights or having to run around and chase the next “thing”. You’re invited to be part of that journey if you want to.

STRATEGY

I mentioned that the process of building wealth and compounding requires us to not interrupt that very same compounding process, so it can yield the most significant results. There are two common mistakes that can cause interruptions:

The first, is to not actually follow through on it, to start doubting the process when the going gets tough and to stop it. Those who can avoid that have a huge advantage in life, it’s on you.

The second, is temporary or permanent loss of capital, or in other words, equity drawdown. What’s frequently mentioned, yet often forgotten, is that when you lose 10%, you need 11.11% to get back to even, but, after losing 50%, you would need to double your money (100%) to again reach previous equity level. And losing it all… well, one would need to borrow money or earn it back outside of markets to start again from scratch.

So getting in a drawdown comes with risks, and getting back out of it requires time. Precious time that is lost on the long recovery, instead of compounding our hard-earned capital. It is no surprise that drawdown is defined as peak-to-“trough/valley” decline in capital. Just imagine falling into a deep hole and then spending effort and time to fight against gravity on a steep incline to crawl back up.

This is why I put a lot of emphasis on controlling risk, volatility and avoiding big drawdowns. This, of course, does not mean there won’t be losses – this fantasy doesn’t exist in markets. It just means that here, protecting capital is first priority. It also means that I have worked hard to find an approach that ensures that these drawdown valleys are kept as short and shallow as possible (here’s to “smooth is fast”). To achieve that, I don’t just trade one market with one system and hope that it will keep working forever. Markets change and go through cycles. Instead, this approach trades a range of assets, different sub-markets within those assets, several strategies that, in turn, work on different time frames. The approach also uses a rather lower trading frequency. The idea is not to churn out many trades, but to keep a steady profile. Trades are not placed discretionarily based on gut feeling, but follow signals that indicate when it is advantageous to be in the market or to take risk off the table. These signals are the output of systematic trading strategies that resulted from a range of research and work on markets and risk management. It's the result of having experienced a good deal of time in these painful drawdown valleys myself and first-hand. It’s no fun place.

So ever since and for decades, I have been working on investment processes, studying markets, distilling best practices in the industry and developing trading systems and investment strategies to, ultimately, create this.
Happy compounding.

ADDITIONAL INFO

- I understand that it appears tempting to trade options and futures, long and short, but I very intentionally decided that this particular set of strategies here on C2 will trade single stocks and ETFs, long-only, so it can be implemented in almost any brokerage or retirement account.

- Because the strategy has a relatively low risk-profile, I apply leverage to increase potential returns even further, as is currently done on the C2 implementation. I personally don’t go higher than what is on C2 (and I wouldn’t recommend and don’t think it would be necessary to do more), but I don’t know some of you personally, so you can obviously dial this up and down as per your preference. Please also note that the simulated performance does not include the cost of leverage, as these costs can vary from broker to broker and C2 is not able to estimate that in their calculations.

- I will send communications and notes to subscribers occasionally, whenever I believe that we are in a period in which a more detailed communication on the strategy's current state or market environment is required. Otherwise I will not spam you with anything meaningless, as it would go against the principle of "relaxation" or a steady profile, for both you and me.

Trend-following Sector Rotation

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20230.10.60.71.2-2.4-1.40.61.16.26.8
2024-2.32.45.4-2.24.2-0.92.02.75.3-4.6-1.5-1.19.0
20252.61.83.11.82.54.3-1.45.36.52.42.51.838.8
202610.65.3-6.94.61.7-2.01.02.917.4

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/12/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age41 months
C2 RankTop 3.7%
What it tradesStocks
# Trades35
# Profitable24
% Profitable68.6%
Avg trade duration381.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown12.0%
drawdown periodMarch 19, 2025 - April 08, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)20.8%
Avg win$1,242
Avg loss$333

Ratios

W:L ratio16.17
Sharpe Ratio1.33
Sortino Ratio1.92
Calmar Ratio2.35

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.42
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life87.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)2.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)20.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)22.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss9.5%
Chance of 20% account loss1.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)837
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)929
C2 Score963
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)856

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$333
Avg Win$1,603
# Winners24
Sum Trade PL (losers)$3,658
Sum Trade PL (winners)$38,465
Num Months Winners30
# Losers11
% Winners68.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct14672

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table41

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)549683.81
Avg Position Time (hrs)9161.40
Avg Trade Length381.70
Last Trade Ago12

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.72
Daily leverage (max)2.21

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.32
Treynor Index0.15

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.42
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.01
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.23
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.41
Hold-and-Hope Ratio2.62

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.21
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.82
df38
t3.36
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.99
Sortino ratio4.34
Upside Potential Ratio5.86
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms11
N of observations39
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error37
t(b)2.95
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.32
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)0.60
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
Mean0.20
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.82
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.79
df38
t3.28
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.94
Sortino ratio4.10
Upside Potential Ratio5.62
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms11
N of observations39
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error37
t(b)2.97
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.30
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)0.58
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.21
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.03
df871
t3.71
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.11
Sortino ratio2.96
Upside Potential Ratio9.97
Upside part of mean0.72
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms521
N negative terms351
N of observations872
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.01
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error870
t(b)13.99
p(b)0
t(a)2.93
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)0.70
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean0.21
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.98
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.97
df871
t3.61
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.05
Sortino ratio2.86
Upside Potential Ratio9.84
Upside part of mean0.71
Downside part of mean-0.51
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms521
N negative terms351
N of observations872
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.01
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.31
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error870
t(b)14.08
p(b)0
t(a)2.87
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)0.68
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.06
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df130
t0.43
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.37
Sortino ratio0.81
Upside Potential Ratio8.24
Upside part of mean0.66
Downside part of mean-0.59
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms55
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.64
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)9.48
p(b)0.12
t(a)-0.34
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.13
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
Mean0.06
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.55
df130
t0.39
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.32
Sortino ratio0.74
Upside Potential Ratio8.14
Upside part of mean0.66
Downside part of mean-0.60
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms55
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.64
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)9.51
p(b)0.12
t(a)-0.35
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations39
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.99
Median1.02
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations872
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low22
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.39
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-6.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations51
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-387127360
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)20
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.28
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.13
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.62
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.67
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.30
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.23
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.35
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.40
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal18.44
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.77
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.77
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.56

Trading record

Placed 53 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
LQD long206Jun 30, 2025Jul 27, 2026($452)
IAU long630Oct 27, 2023Jun 29, 2026$14,810
VNQI long647Feb 27, 2025Jun 15, 2026$435
SGOV long1411May 28, 2024Apr 27, 2026$29
MCHI long47Nov 9, 2023Dec 18, 2025$858
LQD long164Nov 27, 2023May 27, 2025$133
VOO long15Nov 27, 2023Mar 27, 2025$1,722
VNQI long402Nov 27, 2023Dec 27, 2024($206)
FLSW long272Nov 27, 2023Nov 27, 2024$551
EMLC long365Jul 29, 2024Nov 27, 2024($56)
FEZ long185Nov 27, 2023Nov 27, 2024$372
FLJP long317Nov 27, 2023Oct 28, 2024$352
CMDY long252Mar 27, 2024Jul 29, 2024($265)
EMLC long357May 28, 2024Jun 27, 2024($253)
SGOV long1195Sep 29, 2023May 28, 2024$50
EMLC long353Nov 27, 2023Apr 29, 2024($255)
CMDY long289Jul 28, 2023Nov 27, 2023($397)
SGOV long1549Apr 12, 2023Sep 27, 2023$202
IAU long415May 30, 2023Sep 27, 2023($590)
EMLC long403May 30, 2023Sep 27, 2023($410)
VNQI long241Jul 28, 2023Aug 28, 2023($659)
LQD long95May 30, 2023Aug 28, 2023($182)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.