Prosper-Relax-Compound
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 20.8%
- Max Drawdown
- 12.0%
- Trades
- 35
- Win Trades
- 68.6%
- Profit Factor
- 16.20
- Win Months
- 73.2%
About this strategy
“Smooth is fast” – Navy SEAL mantra and racing sport wisdom
PRINCIPLES & INTRO
I began saving and investing money at the age of 13 – when I earned my first money delivering newspapers.
The initial path from there, however, had been far from easy.
Why? I was looking for shortcuts, the big and bold trades, with spectacular returns and the desire to be “proven right”. A process fueled by impatience and the fear of missing the big opportunity. It cost me money, time and nerves. It was just a pitiful and exhausting game.
Things changed when I,
1) have progressed and matured, not simply in terms of age, but in wisdom and skills, which ultimately led me to turn all of that off and instead replace it with what is necessary to achieve success in this domain.
2) understood that I need to build and find the most effective processes and methods to reach the full potential of what is possible in markets. And..
3) when I realized, and I mean profoundly and in the depths of my heart and brain understood and accepted, that true wealth is built when you follow a process that is consistent, reliable and that is not interrupted – relentlessly and patiently.
That’s how fortunes have been and will be built, time after time.
And time… time is of essence. Because, yes, it will take time. There will be periods when others will think that it’s not going quick enough. And yes, others will feel the urge to take a detour and try “this and that”. Maybe some spectacular investment that made fantastic returns in a few weeks or months. And they might even be rewarded by doing that initially. In particular during relentless bull markets, when everyone and their pet is making money quick and easy while we keep grinding. Some might be fooled by that, but that’s the pitiful and exhausting game that I, myself, used to be familiar with (going back to my first paragraph).
So the bottom line is, not everyone will be capable of executing and keeping at it. Probably the majority won’t. And that’s ok, the investment mistakes of the majority are the advantages that we have. That’s why the majority gets majority results – average, at best. We can prosper if we calm down and relax (on a ground level), let go of the fear of missing out and instead, let the process of compounding do its work (it’s in the name). This is what I have created for myself and which enables me to live off my capital in a country with one of the highest costs of living in the world – without sleepless nights or having to run around and chase the next “thing”. You’re invited to be part of that journey if you want to.
STRATEGY
I mentioned that the process of building wealth and compounding requires us to not interrupt that very same compounding process, so it can yield the most significant results. There are two common mistakes that can cause interruptions:
The first, is to not actually follow through on it, to start doubting the process when the going gets tough and to stop it. Those who can avoid that have a huge advantage in life, it’s on you.
The second, is temporary or permanent loss of capital, or in other words, equity drawdown. What’s frequently mentioned, yet often forgotten, is that when you lose 10%, you need 11.11% to get back to even, but, after losing 50%, you would need to double your money (100%) to again reach previous equity level. And losing it all… well, one would need to borrow money or earn it back outside of markets to start again from scratch.
So getting in a drawdown comes with risks, and getting back out of it requires time. Precious time that is lost on the long recovery, instead of compounding our hard-earned capital. It is no surprise that drawdown is defined as peak-to-“trough/valley” decline in capital. Just imagine falling into a deep hole and then spending effort and time to fight against gravity on a steep incline to crawl back up.
This is why I put a lot of emphasis on controlling risk, volatility and avoiding big drawdowns. This, of course, does not mean there won’t be losses – this fantasy doesn’t exist in markets. It just means that here, protecting capital is first priority. It also means that I have worked hard to find an approach that ensures that these drawdown valleys are kept as short and shallow as possible (here’s to “smooth is fast”). To achieve that, I don’t just trade one market with one system and hope that it will keep working forever. Markets change and go through cycles. Instead, this approach trades a range of assets, different sub-markets within those assets, several strategies that, in turn, work on different time frames. The approach also uses a rather lower trading frequency. The idea is not to churn out many trades, but to keep a steady profile. Trades are not placed discretionarily based on gut feeling, but follow signals that indicate when it is advantageous to be in the market or to take risk off the table. These signals are the output of systematic trading strategies that resulted from a range of research and work on markets and risk management. It's the result of having experienced a good deal of time in these painful drawdown valleys myself and first-hand. It’s no fun place.
So ever since and for decades, I have been working on investment processes, studying markets, distilling best practices in the industry and developing trading systems and investment strategies to, ultimately, create this.
Happy compounding.
ADDITIONAL INFO
- I understand that it appears tempting to trade options and futures, long and short, but I very intentionally decided that this particular set of strategies here on C2 will trade single stocks and ETFs, long-only, so it can be implemented in almost any brokerage or retirement account.
- Because the strategy has a relatively low risk-profile, I apply leverage to increase potential returns even further, as is currently done on the C2 implementation. I personally don’t go higher than what is on C2 (and I wouldn’t recommend and don’t think it would be necessary to do more), but I don’t know some of you personally, so you can obviously dial this up and down as per your preference. Please also note that the simulated performance does not include the cost of leverage, as these costs can vary from broker to broker and C2 is not able to estimate that in their calculations.
- I will send communications and notes to subscribers occasionally, whenever I believe that we are in a period in which a more detailed communication on the strategy's current state or market environment is required. Otherwise I will not spam you with anything meaningless, as it would go against the principle of "relaxation" or a steady profile, for both you and me.
Trend-following Sector Rotation
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.2 | -2.4 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 6.2 | 6.8 | |||
| 2024 | -2.3 | 2.4 | 5.4 | -2.2 | 4.2 | -0.9 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 5.3 | -4.6 | -1.5 | -1.1 | 9.0 |
| 2025 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 4.3 | -1.4 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 38.8 |
| 2026 | 10.6 | 5.3 | -6.9 | 4.6 | 1.7 | -2.0 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 17.4 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 4/12/2023 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $15,000 |
| Age | 41 months |
| C2 Rank | Top 3.7% |
| What it trades | Stocks |
| # Trades | 35 |
| # Profitable | 24 |
| % Profitable | 68.6% |
| Avg trade duration | 381.8 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 12.0% |
| drawdown period | March 19, 2025 - April 08, 2025 |
| Annual Return (Compounded) | 20.8% |
| Avg win | $1,242 |
| Avg loss | $333 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 16.17 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.33 |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.92 |
| Calmar Ratio | 2.35 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | 0.42 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 87.0% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | 2.5% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 20.8% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant) | 0.2% |
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 22.6% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | 0.6% |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 0.0% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Short Options - Percent Covered | 100.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 1.0% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 9.5% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 1.0% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Popularity
| Popularity (Today) | 837 |
|---|---|
| Popularity (Last 6 weeks) | 929 |
| C2 Score | 963 |
| Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale) | 856 |
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 0 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $333 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $1,603 |
| # Winners | 24 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $3,658 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $38,465 |
| Num Months Winners | 30 |
| # Losers | 11 |
| % Winners | 68.6% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 14672 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 41 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 549683.81 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 9161.40 |
| Avg Trade Length | 381.70 |
| Last Trade Ago | 12 |
Leverage
| Daily leverage (average) | 1.72 |
|---|---|
| Daily leverage (max) | 2.21 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0.03 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.32 |
| Treynor Index | 0.15 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.01 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.01 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0.01 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | 0.42 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | -0.01 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 0.23 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.41 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | 2.62 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| Mean | 0.21 |
|---|---|
| SD | 0.11 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 1.86 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 1.82 |
| df | 38 |
| t | 3.36 |
| p | 0.00 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.69 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 3.01 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.66 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 2.99 |
| Sortino ratio | 4.34 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 5.86 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.28 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.07 |
| Upside SD | 0.12 |
| Downside SD | 0.05 |
| N nonnegative terms | 28 |
| N negative terms | 11 |
| N of observations | 39 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.19 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.21 |
| SD of predictor | 0.14 |
| SD of criterion | 0.11 |
| Covariance | 0.01 |
| r | 0.44 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.35 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.14 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.01 |
| DF error | 37 |
| t(b) | 2.95 |
| p(b) | 0.00 |
| t(a) | 2.32 |
| p(a) | 0.01 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.11 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.58 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.02 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.27 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.60 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.14 |
| Mean | 0.20 |
| SD | 0.11 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 1.82 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 1.79 |
| df | 38 |
| t | 3.28 |
| p | 0.00 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.65 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 2.97 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.63 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 2.94 |
| Sortino ratio | 4.10 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 5.62 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.28 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.07 |
| Upside SD | 0.11 |
| Downside SD | 0.05 |
| N nonnegative terms | 28 |
| N negative terms | 11 |
| N of observations | 39 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.18 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.20 |
| SD of predictor | 0.14 |
| SD of criterion | 0.11 |
| Covariance | 0.01 |
| r | 0.44 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.35 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.14 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.01 |
| DF error | 37 |
| t(b) | 2.97 |
| p(b) | 0.00 |
| t(a) | 2.30 |
| p(a) | 0.01 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.11 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.58 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.02 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.26 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.58 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.14 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.03 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.05 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.02 |
| Mean | 0.21 |
| SD | 0.10 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 2.03 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 2.03 |
| df | 871 |
| t | 3.71 |
| p | 0.00 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.95 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 3.11 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.95 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 3.11 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.96 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 9.97 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.72 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.50 |
| Upside SD | 0.08 |
| Downside SD | 0.07 |
| N nonnegative terms | 521 |
| N negative terms | 351 |
| N of observations | 872 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.20 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.21 |
| SD of predictor | 0.15 |
| SD of criterion | 0.10 |
| Covariance | 0.01 |
| r | 0.43 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.30 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.15 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.01 |
| DF error | 870 |
| t(b) | 13.99 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 2.93 |
| p(a) | 0.00 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.26 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.35 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.05 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.25 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.70 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.15 |
| Mean | 0.21 |
| SD | 0.10 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 1.98 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 1.97 |
| df | 871 |
| t | 3.61 |
| p | 0.00 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.90 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 3.05 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.90 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 3.05 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.86 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 9.84 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.71 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.51 |
| Upside SD | 0.08 |
| Downside SD | 0.07 |
| N nonnegative terms | 521 |
| N negative terms | 351 |
| N of observations | 872 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.19 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.21 |
| SD of predictor | 0.15 |
| SD of criterion | 0.10 |
| Covariance | 0.01 |
| r | 0.43 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.31 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.15 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.01 |
| DF error | 870 |
| t(b) | 14.08 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 2.87 |
| p(a) | 0.00 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.26 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.35 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.05 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.25 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.68 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.15 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.01 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.01 |
| Mean | 0.06 |
| SD | 0.11 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.61 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.60 |
| df | 130 |
| t | 0.43 |
| p | 0.48 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -2.17 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 3.38 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -2.17 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 3.37 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.81 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 8.24 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.66 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.59 |
| Upside SD | 0.07 |
| Downside SD | 0.08 |
| N nonnegative terms | 76 |
| N negative terms | 55 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.21 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.06 |
| SD of predictor | 0.14 |
| SD of criterion | 0.11 |
| Covariance | 0.01 |
| r | 0.64 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.49 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.04 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.01 |
| DF error | 129 |
| t(b) | 9.48 |
| p(b) | 0.12 |
| t(a) | -0.34 |
| p(a) | 0.52 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.38 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.59 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.27 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.19 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.13 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.04 |
| Mean | 0.06 |
| SD | 0.11 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.55 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.55 |
| df | 130 |
| t | 0.39 |
| p | 0.48 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -2.22 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 3.32 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -2.23 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 3.32 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.74 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 8.14 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.66 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.60 |
| Upside SD | 0.07 |
| Downside SD | 0.08 |
| N nonnegative terms | 76 |
| N negative terms | 55 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.20 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.06 |
| SD of predictor | 0.14 |
| SD of criterion | 0.11 |
| Covariance | 0.01 |
| r | 0.64 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.49 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.04 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.01 |
| DF error | 129 |
| t(b) | 9.51 |
| p(b) | 0.12 |
| t(a) | -0.35 |
| p(a) | 0.52 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.39 |
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.01 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.59 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.27 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.19 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.12 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.04 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.01 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.01 |
ORDER STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 39 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.95 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.99 |
| Median | 1.02 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.04 |
| Maximum | 1.10 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.98 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.01 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.03 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.06 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.05 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.10 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.03 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.40 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.04 |
| Number of observations | 872 |
| Minimum | 0.96 |
| Quartile 1 | 1.00 |
| Median | 1.00 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.00 |
| Maximum | 1.02 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.99 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.01 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.01 |
| Number outliers low | 22 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.03 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.98 |
| Number of outliers high | 9 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.01 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.02 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.20 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.10 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.01 |
| Number of observations | 131 |
| Minimum | 0.97 |
| Quartile 1 | 1.00 |
| Median | 1.00 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.00 |
| Maximum | 1.02 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.99 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.01 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.01 |
| Number outliers low | 5 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.04 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.98 |
| Number of outliers high | 2 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.02 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.02 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.37 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.02 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.39 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.02 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 9 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.01 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.02 |
| Median | 0.03 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.03 |
| Maximum | 0.05 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.02 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.03 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.05 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.01 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.11 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.05 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -6.19 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.05 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.05 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -1.06 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.06 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.06 |
| Number of observations | 51 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.00 |
| Median | 0.01 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.03 |
| Maximum | 0.10 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.00 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.05 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.02 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 4 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.08 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.09 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.07 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.05 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.07 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.10 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.05 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.07 |
| Number of observations | 5 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.00 |
| Median | 0.01 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.01 |
| Maximum | 0.08 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.00 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.08 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.01 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.20 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.08 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life? | -387127360 |
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 20 |
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.2% |
COMBINED STATISTICS
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.28 |
|---|---|
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.22 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 4.13 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 4.62 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 4.67 |
| j156mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j157mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.30 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.23 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 2.35 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 4.40 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 18.44 |
| j313dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j314dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.06 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.06 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.77 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.77 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 4.56 |
Trading record
Placed 53 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LQD | long | 206 | Jun 30, 2025 | Jul 27, 2026 | ($452) |
| IAU | long | 630 | Oct 27, 2023 | Jun 29, 2026 | $14,810 |
| VNQI | long | 647 | Feb 27, 2025 | Jun 15, 2026 | $435 |
| SGOV | long | 1411 | May 28, 2024 | Apr 27, 2026 | $29 |
| MCHI | long | 47 | Nov 9, 2023 | Dec 18, 2025 | $858 |
| LQD | long | 164 | Nov 27, 2023 | May 27, 2025 | $133 |
| VOO | long | 15 | Nov 27, 2023 | Mar 27, 2025 | $1,722 |
| VNQI | long | 402 | Nov 27, 2023 | Dec 27, 2024 | ($206) |
| FLSW | long | 272 | Nov 27, 2023 | Nov 27, 2024 | $551 |
| EMLC | long | 365 | Jul 29, 2024 | Nov 27, 2024 | ($56) |
| FEZ | long | 185 | Nov 27, 2023 | Nov 27, 2024 | $372 |
| FLJP | long | 317 | Nov 27, 2023 | Oct 28, 2024 | $352 |
| CMDY | long | 252 | Mar 27, 2024 | Jul 29, 2024 | ($265) |
| EMLC | long | 357 | May 28, 2024 | Jun 27, 2024 | ($253) |
| SGOV | long | 1195 | Sep 29, 2023 | May 28, 2024 | $50 |
| EMLC | long | 353 | Nov 27, 2023 | Apr 29, 2024 | ($255) |
| CMDY | long | 289 | Jul 28, 2023 | Nov 27, 2023 | ($397) |
| SGOV | long | 1549 | Apr 12, 2023 | Sep 27, 2023 | $202 |
| IAU | long | 415 | May 30, 2023 | Sep 27, 2023 | ($590) |
| EMLC | long | 403 | May 30, 2023 | Sep 27, 2023 | ($410) |
| VNQI | long | 241 | Jul 28, 2023 | Aug 28, 2023 | ($659) |
| LQD | long | 95 | May 30, 2023 | Aug 28, 2023 | ($182) |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.