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Calicut Commodities

Equity · Stocks · Started Nov 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
68.8%
Max Drawdown
29.7%
Trades
248
Win Trades
66.9%
Profit Factor
4.30
Win Months
67.6%
Subscribe Full access for $75/month

About this strategy

Commodity-focused strategy. Idea is to beat S&P 500 with lower correlation; thesis is rest of this decade should be a good environment for commodities due to: 1) Monetary debasement 2) Rising energy needs from Global South/AI 3) Resource nationalism. Strategy trades non-commodity securities at times. April 2026 going fwd: stocks/ETFs only, no futures. When assessing Strategies, look at the Sharpe ratio.

Trend-following Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20233.5-1.61.9
2024-1.4-0.03.28.93.0-1.90.4-0.78.8-2.0-3.0-5.88.7
202521.16.5-4.48.76.29.12.93.87.315.44.62.1119.2
202620.410.48.8-5.12.8-8.814.220.677.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/15/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age34 months
C2 RankTop 0.3%
What it tradesStocks
# Trades248
# Profitable166
% Profitable66.9%
Avg trade duration21.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown29.7%
drawdown periodOct 04, 2024 - Jan 27, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)68.8%
Avg win$694
Avg loss$331

Ratios

W:L ratio4.33
Sharpe Ratio1.65
Sortino Ratio2.86
Calmar Ratio3.33

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.21
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life70.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)259.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)68.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.7%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)71.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.1%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.9%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss32.0%
Chance of 20% account loss4.0%
Chance of 30% account loss1.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)990
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)995
C2 Score997
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)995

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$356
Avg Win$694
# Winners166
Sum Trade PL (losers)$29,180
Sum Trade PL (winners)$115,224
Num Months Winners23
# Losers82
% Winners66.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1167

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table34

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)30533.43
Avg Position Time (hrs)508.89
Avg Trade Length21.20
Last Trade Ago0

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.22
Daily leverage (max)12.86

Regression

Alpha0.13
Beta0.38
Treynor Index0.39

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.37
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)3.36
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.62
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.54
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.72

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.55
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.95
df31
t3.26
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.24
Sortino ratio6.18
Upside Potential Ratio7.82
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms10
N of observations32
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.55
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.02
r0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.66
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.42
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error30
t(b)2.40
p(b)0.01
t(a)2.54
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.76
Treynor index (mean / b)0.82
Jensen alpha (a)0.42
Mean0.50
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.89
df31
t3.16
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.18
Sortino ratio5.49
Upside Potential Ratio7.12
Upside part of mean0.65
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms10
N of observations32
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.50
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.02
r0.41
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.64
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.39
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error30
t(b)2.46
p(b)0.01
t(a)2.51
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.70
Treynor index (mean / b)0.78
Jensen alpha (a)0.39
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.57
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.11
df705
t3.46
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.31
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.31
Sortino ratio3.55
Upside Potential Ratio9.60
Upside part of mean1.53
Downside part of mean-0.97
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms381
N negative terms325
N of observations706
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.57
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.01
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.50
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error704
t(b)6.07
p(b)0
t(a)3.10
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)1.45
Jensen alpha (a)0.50
Mean0.53
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.99
df705
t3.27
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.19
Sortino ratio3.21
Upside Potential Ratio9.15
Upside part of mean1.51
Downside part of mean-0.98
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms381
N negative terms325
N of observations706
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.53
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.01
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.46
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error704
t(b)6.27
p(b)0
t(a)2.93
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.77
Treynor index (mean / b)1.33
Jensen alpha (a)0.46
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.61
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.08
df130
t2.19
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.88
Sortino ratio5.74
Upside Potential Ratio14.15
Upside part of mean1.51
Downside part of mean-0.90
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms65
N negative terms66
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.61
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance-0.00
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.63
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error129
t(b)-0.75
p(b)0.54
t(a)2.24
p(a)0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.66
Jensen alpha (a)0.63
Mean0.59
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.99
df130
t2.13
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.80
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.79
Sortino ratio5.50
Upside Potential Ratio13.90
Upside part of mean1.50
Downside part of mean-0.91
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms65
N negative terms66
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.59
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance-0.00
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.61
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error129
t(b)-0.73
p(b)0.54
t(a)2.17
p(a)0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.33
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.60
Jensen alpha (a)0.61
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations32
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.99
Median1.03
Quartile 31.11
Maximum1.23
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.07
Mean of quarter 41.16
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.56
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations706
Minimum0.87
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low24
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high30
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.53
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.05
Median0.07
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations52
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.60
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.24
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.84
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.33
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-18.43
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.52
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-442045024
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)115
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.70
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)8.61
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs8.77
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.59
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.30
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.75
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.32
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs9.30
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal23.85
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.73
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.86
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)7.79
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs11.85
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal38.12

Trading record

Placed 449 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
HL long892Aug 5, 2026Aug 14, 2026$1,441
URA long231Jul 13, 2026Aug 11, 2026$470
BNO long108Aug 6, 2026Aug 11, 2026$459
AA long106Jul 22, 2026Aug 10, 2026$499
UUUU long584Aug 6, 2026Aug 7, 2026$878
NOC long9Jul 22, 2026Aug 6, 2026$275
GDX long150Jul 30, 2026Aug 6, 2026$988
UFO long223Aug 3, 2026Aug 4, 2026$588
SLV long200Jul 29, 2026Aug 3, 2026$45
CAG long350Jul 2, 2026Jul 29, 2026$427
GLD long52Jul 23, 2026Jul 28, 2026($100)
SLV long98Jul 17, 2026Jul 27, 2026$181
OBE long1510Jul 8, 2026Jul 23, 2026$2,861
EWZ long210Jul 20, 2026Jul 23, 2026$94
XOP long58Jul 16, 2026Jul 22, 2026$484
BNO long213Jul 17, 2026Jul 22, 2026$735
OIH long27Jul 6, 2026Jul 16, 2026$407
LIT long103Jul 9, 2026Jul 13, 2026($202)
BNO long960Jun 22, 2026Jul 9, 2026$2,279
SLV long391Jun 30, 2026Jul 2, 2026$561
GDX long131Jun 25, 2026Jun 29, 2026($149)
SLV long391Jun 24, 2026Jun 29, 2026$361
RDW long383Jun 22, 2026Jun 23, 2026($220)
GDX long133Jun 11, 2026Jun 15, 2026$1,370
OKLO long102Jun 2, 2026Jun 5, 2026($1,174)
METC long288Jun 2, 2026Jun 5, 2026($473)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.