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Nasdaq MNQ Specialist

Futures · Futures · Started Oct 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
32.0%
Max Drawdown
42.3%
Trades
242
Win Trades
85.1%
Profit Factor
2.50
Win Months
78.3%
Subscribe Full access for $49/month

About this strategy

Core Strategy Overview
This trading strategy revolves around systematically buying the dips and pullbacks in the Micro Nasdaq 100 futures (MNQ) when the price declines by 1-3% from recent highs. The goal is to capitalize on market rebounds while mitigating downside risk through controlled position sizing and profit-taking adjustments based on economic and technical indicators. We suggest staying in the fund for at least one year to fully realize the potential of our strategy.

Key Components of the Strategy
1. Entry Criteria: Buying the Dip (1-3%)
✅ We initiate trades when MNQ drops between 1-3% from a recent high or key resistance level.
The exact entry point depends on factors such as:
✅ Market Structure: Identifying strong support zones.
✅ Momentum Indicators: Using RSI and ADX to confirm oversold conditions.
✅ Economic Events: Avoiding or capitalizing on key macroeconomic data releases (CPI, Fed meetings, NFP).

2. Profit-Taking Adjustments (1-3%)
Profit targets vary between 1-3%, depending on:
✅ Volatility Conditions: Higher volatility allows for larger profit targets, while lower volatility warrants conservative exits.
✅ Trend Strength: If the broader trend is bullish, we extend profit-taking closer to 3%. If uncertain or choppy, we lock in gains earlier (~1%).
✅ News & Market Sentiment: Unexpected geopolitical risks or negative economic data may lead to earlier exits to protect capital.

3. Risk Management and Capital Preservation:
Position Sizing:
✅ Smaller positions in highly volatile or uncertain conditions.
✅ Larger positions when economic indicators favor mean reversion or trend continuation.
No Overexposure:
✅ Ensuring no excessive leverage is used to withstand drawdowns.
✅ Avoiding trading during high-impact events unless the strategy is adjusted accordingly.
✅ We usually buy 1 to 3 MNQ, but the system may occasionally buy up to 6 MNQ to dollar-cost average. We will not purchase more than 6 MNQ to remain in sync with subscribers' maximum capital.

4. Growth & Adaptability
✅ The strategy is not static; it adapts based on changing economic conditions and market structure.
✅ Regularly adjusting the parameters (dip % and profit targets) based on price action and volume.
✅ Aiming for consistent profits over time rather than chasing oversized returns.

Conclusion
This MNQ dip-buying strategy prioritizes growth while emphasizing capital preservation. By dynamically adjusting entry and exit points based on market conditions, it balances risk and reward, allowing traders to capitalize on short-term dips and pullbacks without exposing themselves to excessive downside risks.

These are the other strategies that I am managing. Please try them on simulator.

S and P MES Specialist: This is a futures strategy based on S and P Index.
https://collective2.com/details/151294783

Euro Stoxx 50 Specialist: This is a futures strategy based on EURO STOXX 50 Index, Europe's leading blue-chip index for the Eurozone 
https://collective2.com/details/150918955

Global Futures Specialist: This is mixed futures strategy based on Gold, Crude Oil and Australia SPI 200 Index.
https://collective2.com/details/151221417

Buy The Dip: This is a stock-based scalping and swing strategy that targets a realized gain of $50 to $100 per day.
https://collective2.com/details/151465599

Additional Stop Loss Risk Control by Subscribers
We do not have fixed stop-loss limits and instead dynamically identify riskier positions and close positions that we deem to be high risk. We also encourage our subscribers to set their own stop-loss limits, if they wish to do so. One subscriber may be comfortable with a 2% stop-loss, while another may prefer a 10% threshold. Therefore, we leave it to the user's discretion. You can find the Collective2 subscriber stop-loss settings at the link below.
https://support.collective2.com/hc/en-us/articles/202933834-AutoTrade-Configuration-Scaling-Max-Size-Auto-Stop-Loss

Note: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Our strategies are not available to UAE residents or UAE citizens.

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2024-0.16.59.316.3
202517.93.2-6.58.52.61.10.72.41.93.1-1.63.140.5
20261.6-4.6-4.23.40.64.02.40.33.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/10/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$80,000
Age23 months
C2 RankTop 6.9%
What it tradesFutures
# Trades242
# Profitable206
% Profitable85.1%
Avg trade duration2.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown42.3%
drawdown periodMarch 07, 2025 - April 09, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)32.0%
Avg win$294
Avg loss$670

Ratios

W:L ratio2.51
Sharpe Ratio0.86
Sortino Ratio1.57
Calmar Ratio1.20

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.27
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life32.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)35.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)32.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)33.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity2.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss56.5%
Chance of 20% account loss28.5%
Chance of 30% account loss9.0%
Chance of 40% account loss1.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.8%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)839
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)916
C2 Score931
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)897

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$674
Avg Win$294
# Winners206
Sum Trade PL (losers)$24,272
Sum Trade PL (winners)$60,644
Num Months Winners19
# Losers36
% Winners85.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table23

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2950.38
Avg Position Time (hrs)49.17
Avg Trade Length2
Last Trade Ago6

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.32
Daily leverage (max)5.87

Regression

Alpha0.06
Beta0.47
Treynor Index0.18

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades6.25
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)3.36
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.05
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-3.06
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.16

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.29
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.57
df21
t2.21
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.10
Sortino ratio7.41
Upside Potential Ratio8.75
Upside part of mean0.34
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms5
N of observations22
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.29
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error20
t(b)0.02
p(b)0.50
t(a)2.09
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.57
Treynor index (mean / b)66.87
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
Mean0.27
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.61
df21
t2.26
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.13
Sortino ratio6.86
Upside Potential Ratio8.20
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms5
N of observations22
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.27
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.27
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error20
t(b)0.12
p(b)0.49
t(a)2.12
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.53
Treynor index (mean / b)9.64
Jensen alpha (a)0.27
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.31
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.07
df480
t1.46
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.52
Sortino ratio2.05
Upside Potential Ratio7.35
Upside part of mean1.10
Downside part of mean-0.80
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms236
N negative terms245
N of observations481
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.01
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.52
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.24
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error479
t(b)6.81
p(b)0
t(a)1.17
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.64
Treynor index (mean / b)0.60
Jensen alpha (a)0.24
Mean0.27
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.98
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.98
df480
t1.33
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.43
Sortino ratio1.74
Upside Potential Ratio6.94
Upside part of mean1.08
Downside part of mean-0.81
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms236
N negative terms245
N of observations481
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.27
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.01
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.54
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error479
t(b)7.52
p(b)0
t(a)1.05
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)0.50
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.11
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.67
df130
t0.47
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.44
Sortino ratio1.15
Upside Potential Ratio9.13
Upside part of mean0.90
Downside part of mean-0.79
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.01
r0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.63
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)6.95
p(b)0.18
t(a)-0.07
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)0.18
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
Mean0.10
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.59
df130
t0.42
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.36
Sortino ratio1.00
Upside Potential Ratio8.96
Upside part of mean0.89
Downside part of mean-0.79
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms64
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.01
r0.53
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)7.01
p(b)0.18
t(a)-0.11
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)0.16
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations22
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1.02
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations481
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low40
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high41
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.34
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.04
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations34
Minimum0
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.80
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.42
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.61
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations11
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.48
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-498283424
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)33
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.40
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.35
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)9.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs9.28
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.88
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.40
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.35
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.20
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.61
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.41
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.96
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.27
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.53

Trading record

Placed 417 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ Z6long1Aug 14, 2026Aug 17, 2026$80
MNQ Z6long1Aug 14, 2026Aug 14, 2026$70
MNQ Z6long1Aug 14, 2026Aug 14, 2026$119
MNQ Z6long1Aug 10, 2026Aug 13, 2026$487
MNQ Z6long1Aug 10, 2026Aug 10, 2026$105
MNQ Z6long1Aug 5, 2026Aug 10, 2026$139
MNQ Z6long1Aug 4, 2026Aug 5, 2026$273
MNQ Z6long1Aug 4, 2026Aug 4, 2026$141
MNQ Z6long1Aug 4, 2026Aug 4, 2026$54
MNQ Z6long1Aug 4, 2026Aug 4, 2026$73
MNQ Z6long1Aug 4, 2026Aug 4, 2026$154
MNQ Z6long1Aug 4, 2026Aug 4, 2026$185
MNQ Z6long1Aug 4, 2026Aug 4, 2026$160
MNQ Z6long1Aug 2, 2026Aug 3, 2026$214
MNQ Z6long4Jul 21, 2026Jul 31, 2026$1,386
MNQ Z6long3Jul 9, 2026Jul 21, 2026$28
MNQ Z6long1Jul 9, 2026Jul 9, 2026$158
MNQ Z6long2Jul 5, 2026Jul 9, 2026$281
MNQ Z6long2Jul 1, 2026Jul 5, 2026$201
MNQ Z6long1Jun 29, 2026Jun 30, 2026$346
MNQ Z6long3Jun 22, 2026Jun 29, 2026$182
MNQ Z6long1Jun 22, 2026Jun 22, 2026$206
MNQ Z6long1Jun 22, 2026Jun 22, 2026$168
MNQ Z6long1Jun 19, 2026Jun 21, 2026($105)
MNQ Z6long1Jun 18, 2026Jun 18, 2026$139
MNQ Z6long2Jun 17, 2026Jun 18, 2026$153
MNQ Z6long1Jun 15, 2026Jun 16, 2026$17
MNQ Z6long1Jun 15, 2026Jun 15, 2026$282
MNQ Z6long1Jun 14, 2026Jun 14, 2026$499
MNQ U6long1Jun 11, 2026Jun 12, 2026$292

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.