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AIB STOCKS and FUT

Futures · Started Dec 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
145.2%
Max Drawdown
46.0%
Trades
786
Win Trades
93.9%
Profit Factor
2.70
Win Months
90.5%
Subscribe Full access for $196/month

About this strategy

just want all to understand that :
there is no certainty - only probabilities !!!

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20242.92.9
202517.04.81.829.95.1-0.4-8.932.12.56.35.61.9139.7
20267.13.57.82.35.514.017.66.483.8

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/20/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$80,000
Age20 months
C2 RankTop 2.1%
What it tradesFutures
# Trades786
# Profitable738
% Profitable93.9%
Avg trade duration1.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown46.0%
drawdown periodJune 01, 2026 - June 08, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)145.2%
Avg win$143
Avg loss$813

Ratios

W:L ratio2.71
Sharpe Ratio1.58
Sortino Ratio2.36
Calmar Ratio4.26

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life29.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)323.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)145.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)1.5%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)155.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss65.0%
Chance of 20% account loss24.5%
Chance of 30% account loss11.5%
Chance of 40% account loss3.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)920
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)993
C2 Score979
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)982

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$813
Avg Win$143
# Winners738
Sum Trade PL (losers)$39,006
Sum Trade PL (winners)$105,534
Num Months Winners19
# Losers48
% Winners93.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct246

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table21

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1435.88
Avg Position Time (hrs)23.93
Avg Trade Length1
Last Trade Ago0

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.57
Daily leverage (max)21.03

Regression

Alpha0.28
Beta0.24
Treynor Index1.18

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.66
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)4.39
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats100
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats90.89
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.55
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.81
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.16

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.00
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.07
df18
t4.03
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.92
Sortino ratio8.95
Upside Potential Ratio9.75
Upside part of mean1.09
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms1
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion1.00
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance-0.02
r-0.42
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.96
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.12
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error17
t(b)-1.89
p(b)0.76
t(a)4.66
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.63
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.05
Jensen alpha (a)1.12
Mean0.92
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.04
df18
t4.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.89
Sortino ratio7.65
Upside Potential Ratio8.45
Upside part of mean1.01
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms1
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.92
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance-0.02
r-0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.92
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.02
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error17
t(b)-1.94
p(b)0.76
t(a)4.64
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.49
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.00
Jensen alpha (a)1.02
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean1.06
SD0.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.09
df430
t2.68
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.62
Sortino ratio3.06
Upside Potential Ratio7.55
Upside part of mean2.61
Downside part of mean-1.55
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms287
N negative terms144
N of observations431
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion1.06
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.51
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.03
Mean Square Error0.26
DF error429
t(b)1.60
p(b)0.05
t(a)2.60
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.80
Treynor index (mean / b)4.59
Jensen alpha (a)1.03
Mean0.93
SD0.52
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.79
df430
t2.30
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.32
Sortino ratio2.47
Upside Potential Ratio6.79
Upside part of mean2.55
Downside part of mean-1.62
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.38
N nonnegative terms287
N negative terms144
N of observations431
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.93
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.52
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.90
Mean Square Error0.27
DF error429
t(b)1.64
p(b)0.05
t(a)2.23
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.69
Treynor index (mean / b)3.83
Jensen alpha (a)0.90
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean1.38
SD0.65
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.11
df130
t1.50
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.89
Sortino ratio2.83
Upside Potential Ratio7.17
Upside part of mean3.49
Downside part of mean-2.11
Upside SD0.43
Downside SD0.49
N nonnegative terms96
N negative terms35
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion1.38
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.65
Covariance-0.02
r-0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.76
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.53
Mean Square Error0.41
DF error129
t(b)-1.91
p(b)0.61
t(a)1.68
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.34
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.81
Jensen alpha (a)1.53
Mean1.15
SD0.68
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.68
df130
t1.20
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.46
Sortino ratio2.14
Upside Potential Ratio6.31
Upside part of mean3.40
Downside part of mean-2.25
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.54
N nonnegative terms96
N negative terms35
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion1.15
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.68
Covariance-0.01
r-0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.72
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.29
Mean Square Error0.46
DF error129
t(b)-1.73
p(b)0.60
t(a)1.35
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.55
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.59
Jensen alpha (a)1.29
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations19
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11.04
Median1.08
Quartile 31.13
Maximum1.32
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.06
Mean of quarter 31.10
Mean of quarter 41.19
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.32
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations431
Minimum0.75
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low33
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high43
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.92
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.55
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum0.75
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.74
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.15

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.14
Quartile 10.14
Median0.14
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations53
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.38
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.44
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.25
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.28
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.38
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high0.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-4.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.15
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.32
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.33
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.44
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-397487040
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)7
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)2.20
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.58
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)11.41
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal17.38
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)2.32
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.60
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.26
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs11.52
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal26.51
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.61
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs11.44
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal28.52

Trading record

Placed 2859 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ U6short3Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026$115
MNQ U6long1Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026$41
MNQ U6long5Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026($14)
MNQ U6long3Aug 19, 2026Aug 19, 2026$215
MNQ U6long1Aug 19, 2026Aug 19, 2026$112
MNQ U6long6Aug 19, 2026Aug 19, 2026$325
MNQ U6short2Aug 18, 2026Aug 18, 2026$81
MNQ U6short2Aug 18, 2026Aug 18, 2026$124
MNQ U6long4Aug 18, 2026Aug 18, 2026$32
MNQ U6long4Aug 17, 2026Aug 17, 2026$116
MNQ U6short5Aug 16, 2026Aug 17, 2026$363
M2K U6short4Aug 13, 2026Aug 17, 2026$106
MNQ U6short2Aug 14, 2026Aug 14, 2026$116
MNQ U6long5Aug 14, 2026Aug 14, 2026$242
MNQ U6short3Aug 13, 2026Aug 14, 2026($609)
MNQ U6long1Aug 13, 2026Aug 13, 2026$53
MNQ U6long2Aug 12, 2026Aug 12, 2026$102
MNQ U6long7Aug 12, 2026Aug 12, 2026$87
MNQ U6short1Aug 12, 2026Aug 12, 2026$24
MNQ U6long3Aug 11, 2026Aug 11, 2026$130
MNQ U6long1Aug 11, 2026Aug 11, 2026$116
MNQ U6long1Aug 11, 2026Aug 11, 2026$27
MNQ U6short1Aug 10, 2026Aug 10, 2026$40
MNQ U6long2Aug 10, 2026Aug 10, 2026$32
MNQ U6short1Aug 10, 2026Aug 10, 2026$135
MNQ U6long3Aug 7, 2026Aug 7, 2026$172
MNQ U6short16Aug 7, 2026Aug 7, 2026$728
MNQ U6long2Aug 7, 2026Aug 7, 2026$115
MNQ U6long5Aug 6, 2026Aug 6, 2026$210

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.