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SQQQ Hold the Strike

Options · Started Apr 2025

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
35.6%
Max Drawdown
20.8%
Trades
34
Win Trades
100.0%
Profit Factor
-19.70
Win Months
76.5%
Subscribe Full access for $20/month

About this strategy

SQQQ Hold the Strike is a tactical premium collection strategy designed to profit from short-term market weakness by selling at-the-money (ATM) call options on the SQQQ ETF. The strategy targets income generation through time decay, with no upside protection in place if the market rallies.

If the call expires in-the-money, the trader is assigned SQQQ shares, initiating a covered put position. The strategy then sells puts during short-term pullbacks or when SQQQ shows signs of being oversold, aiming to collect further premium as the market retraces.

This bearish-leaning approach is executed weekly and does not manage upside risk—sharp rallies may result in drawdowns. It suits traders comfortable with holding short-term bearish exposure in exchange for the potential of high weekly income.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20252.93.93.01.40.64.34.04.5-1.525.5
20261.1-3.3-8.825.39.41.2-5.12.820.7

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/15/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$35,000
Age16 months
C2 RankTop 5.6%
What it tradesStocks, Options
# Trades34
# Profitable34
% Profitable100.0%
Avg trade duration17.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown20.8%
drawdown periodJan 28, 2026 - March 31, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)35.6%
Avg win$188
Avg loss$0

Ratios

W:L ratio-19.73
Sharpe Ratio1.42
Sortino Ratio2.36
Calmar Ratio2.50

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.70
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life42.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)9.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)35.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.4%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)41.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity2.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.8%
Short Options - Percent Covered43.3%
Percent Trades Stocks0.2%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss11.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)929
C2 Score944
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)821

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$0
Avg Win$188
# Winners34
Sum Trade PL (losers)$0
Sum Trade PL (winners)$6,395
Num Months Winners13
# Losers0
% Winners100.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct-309

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table17

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)25705.53
Avg Position Time (hrs)428.43
Avg Trade Length17.90
Last Trade Ago57

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.29
Daily leverage (max)3.41

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.96
Treynor Index0.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.25
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.90
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.25
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.82

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.35
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.57
df14
t1.85
p0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.41
Sortino ratio4.88
Upside Potential Ratio6.34
Upside part of mean0.45
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms3
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.35
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.02
r0.77
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error13
t(b)4.40
p(b)0.06
t(a)0.43
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)0.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.32
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.54
df14
t1.82
p0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.39
Sortino ratio4.42
Upside Potential Ratio5.88
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms3
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.32
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.02
r0.78
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error13
t(b)4.52
p(b)0.06
t(a)0.42
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)0.27
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.35
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.01
df346
t2.32
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.72
Sortino ratio3.42
Upside Potential Ratio10.59
Upside part of mean1.07
Downside part of mean-0.73
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms212
N negative terms135
N of observations347
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.35
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.02
r0.70
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.91
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error345
t(b)18.38
p(b)0
t(a)1.14
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)0.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
Mean0.33
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.94
df346
t2.24
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.65
Sortino ratio3.24
Upside Potential Ratio10.39
Upside part of mean1.06
Downside part of mean-0.73
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms212
N negative terms135
N of observations347
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.02
r0.71
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.90
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error345
t(b)18.54
p(b)0
t(a)1.10
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)0.37
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.45
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.11
df130
t1.50
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.89
Sortino ratio3.67
Upside Potential Ratio11.50
Upside part of mean1.40
Downside part of mean-0.95
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms55
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.45
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.02
r0.72
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)11.87
p(b)0.08
t(a)1.11
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.64
Treynor index (mean / b)0.42
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
Mean0.43
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.02
df130
t1.44
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.81
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.80
Sortino ratio3.45
Upside Potential Ratio11.25
Upside part of mean1.39
Downside part of mean-0.96
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms55
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.43
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.02
r0.73
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)12.02
p(b)0.08
t(a)1.08
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.90
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.63
Treynor index (mean / b)0.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations15
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11.01
Median1.02
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations347
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low21
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high15
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.96
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.04
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.05
Median0.06
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations35
Minimum0
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.67
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations11
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.72
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.89
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.26
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-466939456
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)62
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.44
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.42
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.96
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.96
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.84
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.46
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.43
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.51
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs8.26
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal21.38
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.51
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.57
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.95
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.82
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal23.20

Trading record

Placed 1 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SQQQ2626R35 short1Jun 15, 2026Jun 27, 2026$121
SQQQ2622Q41.5 short1May 13, 2026May 23, 2026$157
SQQQ short213Jul 12, 2025May 23, 2026$4,011
SQQQ2521K14.5 short1Nov 11, 2025Nov 22, 2025$26
SQQQ2514W13.5 short1Nov 11, 2025Nov 15, 2025$22
SQQQ2507K13.5 short1Nov 4, 2025Nov 8, 2025$39
SQQQ2531V13.5 short1Oct 27, 2025Nov 1, 2025$38
SQQQ2517V14.5 short1Oct 14, 2025Oct 18, 2025$13
SQQQ2517J15.5 short1Oct 7, 2025Oct 18, 2025$24
SQQQ2510V15 short1Oct 6, 2025Oct 11, 2025$50
SQQQ2503V15 short1Sep 30, 2025Oct 4, 2025$12
SQQQ2526U15.5 short1Sep 23, 2025Sep 27, 2025$53
SQQQ2526I15.5 short1Sep 25, 2025Sep 27, 2025$40
SQQQ2519I16.5 short1Sep 17, 2025Sep 20, 2025$40
SQQQ2512U17 short1Sep 5, 2025Sep 13, 2025$36
SQQQ2529T17.5 short1Aug 25, 2025Aug 30, 2025$29
SQQQ2522H17 short1Aug 18, 2025Aug 23, 2025$53
SQQQ2515H17.5 short1Aug 11, 2025Aug 16, 2025$39
SQQQ2508T18.5 short1Aug 5, 2025Aug 9, 2025$46
SQQQ2501H18 short1Jul 25, 2025Aug 2, 2025$58
SQQQ2525G19 short1Jul 18, 2025Jul 26, 2025$31
SQQQ2511G19 short1Jul 7, 2025Jul 12, 2025$66
SQQQ2503G19.5 short1Jul 1, 2025Jul 4, 2025$47
SQQQ2527R20.5 short1Jun 25, 2025Jun 28, 2025$19
SQQQ short100Jun 14, 2025Jun 28, 2025$198
SQQQ2513F22.5 short1Jun 9, 2025Jun 14, 2025$55
SQQQ2506R23 short1May 28, 2025Jun 7, 2025$74
SQQQ short100May 24, 2025Jun 7, 2025$98
SQQQ2523E24 short1May 19, 2025May 24, 2025$87
SQQQ2516E24 short1May 14, 2025May 17, 2025$66

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.