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Sparc

Stocks, Futures · Started Aug 2025

Trades Own Strategy

hypothetical · Cumul. Return
77.2%
Max Drawdown
22.4%
Trades
123
Win Trades
58.5%
Profit Factor
2.50
Win Months
69.2%
Subscribe Full access for $99/month

About this strategy

This strategy has changed a few times from a momentum stock strategy to futures trading to as of June 2026 a slow/boring growth as well as dividend-based stock strategy. Therefore, future returns will be muted compared to what the strategy had during it's first year.

Do not subscribe to this strategy until June of 2027 so you can decide for yourself if you like the latest "flavor" or not.

Thanks and happy Trading!

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2025-1.319.31.411.011.648.0
20264.89.1-13.915.61.8-1.35.4-0.519.8

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/25/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$35,000
Age12 months
C2 RankTop 3.0%
What it tradesStocks, Futures
# Trades123
# Profitable72
% Profitable58.5%
Avg trade duration72.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown22.4%
drawdown periodOct 15, 2025 - Nov 06, 2025
Cumul. Return77.2%
Avg win$408
Avg loss$255

Ratios

W:L ratio2.47
Sharpe Ratio1.96
Sortino Ratio3.05
Calmar Ratio4.48

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.25
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life19.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)58.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)76.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.8%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status-2.8%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)86.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.4%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.6%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss12.5%
Chance of 20% account loss2.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated41.6%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)876
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)936
C2 Score970
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)932

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?187638
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$255
Avg Win$408
# Winners72
Sum Trade PL (losers)$12,988
Sum Trade PL (winners)$29,404
Num Months Winners9
# Losers51
% Winners58.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1312

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table13

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)104777.93
Avg Position Time (hrs)1746.30
Avg Trade Length72.80
Last Trade Ago3

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.01
Daily leverage (max)8.72

Regression

Alpha0.14
Beta0.49
Treynor Index0.34

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.58
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.84
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.24
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.02
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.63

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.73
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.09
df10
t2.17
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.33
Sortino ratio6.14
Upside Potential Ratio7.40
Upside part of mean0.88
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms3
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.73
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.04
r0.62
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.59
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error9
t(b)2.40
p(b)0.02
t(a)2.08
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.22
Treynor index (mean / b)0.66
Jensen alpha (a)0.59
Mean0.66
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.00
df10
t2.08
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.23
Sortino ratio5.30
Upside Potential Ratio6.55
Upside part of mean0.82
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms3
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.66
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.04
r0.66
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.53
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error9
t(b)2.63
p(b)0.01
t(a)2.08
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.12
Treynor index (mean / b)0.58
Jensen alpha (a)0.53
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.64
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.55
df256
t2.53
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.54
Sortino ratio4.09
Upside Potential Ratio11.11
Upside part of mean1.75
Downside part of mean-1.10
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms154
N negative terms103
N of observations257
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.64
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.01
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.45
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.57
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error255
t(b)3.76
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.30
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.06
Treynor index (mean / b)1.44
Jensen alpha (a)0.57
Mean0.61
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.43
df256
t2.41
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.42
Sortino ratio3.82
Upside Potential Ratio10.80
Upside part of mean1.73
Downside part of mean-1.12
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms154
N negative terms103
N of observations257
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.61
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.01
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.45
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.54
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error255
t(b)3.79
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.19
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.54
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.30
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.56
df130
t1.11
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.34
Sortino ratio2.35
Upside Potential Ratio9.83
Upside part of mean1.23
Downside part of mean-0.94
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms55
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)2.96
p(b)0.34
t(a)0.87
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.74
Treynor index (mean / b)0.88
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
Mean0.28
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.47
df130
t1.05
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.25
Sortino ratio2.19
Upside Potential Ratio9.64
Upside part of mean1.22
Downside part of mean-0.95
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms55
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.34
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)2.98
p(b)0.34
t(a)0.82
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.72
Treynor index (mean / b)0.82
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations11
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11.01
Median1.05
Quartile 31.13
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.03
Mean of quarter 31.11
Mean of quarter 41.17
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.61
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations257
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low13
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.43
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.45
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.06
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations17
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.75
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.48
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.21
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-371991872
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)22
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.96
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.99
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)7.95
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs7.95
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.38
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.89
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.89
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.48
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.68
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal30.62
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.33
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.36
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.20
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.15
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal15.81

Trading record

Placed 37 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
R long4Jun 3, 2026Aug 12, 2026$10
COP long8Jun 3, 2026Aug 12, 2026$56
RBCAA long12Jun 3, 2026Aug 12, 2026$199
BLX long18Jun 3, 2026Jul 1, 2026$112
MNQ M6long6Jun 2, 2026Jun 2, 2026($874)
MNQ M6long1Jun 2, 2026Jun 2, 2026($122)
QMGC Q6long1Jun 2, 2026Jun 2, 2026($218)
MNQ M6long2Jun 1, 2026Jun 1, 2026($246)
MNQ M6long2Jun 1, 2026Jun 1, 2026($343)
MNQ M6long3May 29, 2026May 29, 2026($456)
MNQ M6long4May 28, 2026May 29, 2026$1,335
MNQ M6long3May 26, 2026May 26, 2026($481)
QMGC M6short1May 26, 2026May 26, 2026($258)
MNQ M6long3May 22, 2026May 22, 2026($240)
MNQ M6long2May 21, 2026May 22, 2026$199
MNQ M6long2May 21, 2026May 21, 2026($271)
QMGC M6long1May 20, 2026May 21, 2026($256)
MNQ M6long1May 20, 2026May 20, 2026$296
M2K M6long1May 19, 2026May 20, 2026$126
QMGC M6long2May 18, 2026May 18, 2026($524)
QMGC M6short1May 15, 2026May 15, 2026$51
QMGC M6short2May 12, 2026May 14, 2026$610
MNQ M6long2May 14, 2026May 14, 2026($239)
MNQ M6long3May 14, 2026May 14, 2026($344)
QMGC M6long1May 11, 2026May 12, 2026($121)
MNQ M6long5May 8, 2026May 8, 2026$1,182
MNQ M6long1May 7, 2026May 8, 2026$746
MNQ M6long3May 7, 2026May 7, 2026($399)
MNQ M6long2May 6, 2026May 6, 2026$160
QMGC M6long1May 6, 2026May 6, 2026($271)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.