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AI Alpha Gold Hedge

Equity · Stocks · Started Nov 2025

Trades Own Strategy BrokerTransmit

hypothetical · Cumul. Return
63.4%
Max Drawdown
14.4%
Trades
272
Win Trades
50.4%
Profit Factor
3
Win Months
90.0%
Subscribe Full access for $99/month

About this strategy

This strategy is focused, rules-based model, built to capture alpha with a hedging portfolio with Gold.
It was created for larger portfolios or institutional capital. It's a book-of-strategies approach: a portfolio of complementary strategies diversified by factors, market capitalizations, and rebalancing frequencies. This balances risk, improves capacity, and smooths returns over time.
In short: a single, solid strategy can generate outperformance, but a well-structured book of strategies delivers outperformance and resilience.
20 STOCKS total in PORTFOLIO Value and Growth stocks
TOS 100%
100% QUANTITATIVE AI STRATEGY

Goals:
1) Beat the market all weather.
2) Big Alpha and BIG Sharpe % Sortino values.
3) Low Drawdown and Small Std Dev (hedge the market)
****************

Sector Rotation

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20254.12.46.6
202615.610.6-12.111.610.92.10.87.153.4

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/24/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$5,000
Age9 months
C2 RankTop 8.6%
What it tradesStocks
# Trades272
# Profitable137
% Profitable50.4%
Avg trade duration45.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown14.4%
drawdown periodMarch 03, 2026 - March 30, 2026
Cumul. Return63.4%
Avg win$362
Avg loss$126

Ratios

W:L ratio2.95
Sharpe Ratio2.86
Sortino Ratio4.44
Calmar Ratio7.81

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.45
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life14.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)49.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)91.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.6%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)97.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss6.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)826
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)969
C2 Score914
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)939

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?187398
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$126
Avg Win$362
# Winners137
Sum Trade PL (losers)$16,992
Sum Trade PL (winners)$49,574
Num Months Winners9
# Losers135
% Winners50.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct602

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table10

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)66021.18
Avg Position Time (hrs)1100.35
Avg Trade Length45.80
Last Trade Ago3

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.45
Daily leverage (max)2.46

Regression

Alpha0.15
Beta0.67
Treynor Index0.27

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.48
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.62
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.32
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.34
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.86

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.66
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.02
df7
t1.85
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.64
Sortino ratio4.99
Upside Potential Ratio6.22
Upside part of mean0.83
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms1
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.66
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.04
r0.73
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.54
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error6
t(b)2.61
p(b)0.02
t(a)2.00
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.64
Jensen alpha (a)0.54
Mean0.61
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.89
df7
t1.74
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.49
Sortino ratio4.34
Upside Potential Ratio5.57
Upside part of mean0.78
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms1
N of observations8
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.61
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.04
r0.75
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.50
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error6
t(b)2.82
p(b)0.02
t(a)1.99
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.12
Treynor index (mean / b)0.57
Jensen alpha (a)0.50
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.68
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.47
df191
t2.98
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.78
Sortino ratio5.53
Upside Potential Ratio12.73
Upside part of mean1.57
Downside part of mean-0.89
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms118
N negative terms74
N of observations192
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.68
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.60
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.58
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error190
t(b)6.03
p(b)0.30
t(a)2.77
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.00
Treynor index (mean / b)1.14
Jensen alpha (a)0.58
Mean0.66
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.37
df191
t2.89
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.68
Sortino ratio5.31
Upside Potential Ratio12.49
Upside part of mean1.56
Downside part of mean-0.89
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms118
N negative terms74
N of observations192
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.66
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.60
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.57
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error190
t(b)6.07
p(b)0.30
t(a)2.70
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.98
Treynor index (mean / b)1.10
Jensen alpha (a)0.57
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.56
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.97
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.95
df130
t2.10
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.75
Sortino ratio4.80
Upside Potential Ratio12.21
Upside part of mean1.43
Downside part of mean-0.87
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms79
N negative terms52
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.56
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.51
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.45
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)4.72
p(b)0.26
t(a)1.83
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.95
Treynor index (mean / b)1.09
Jensen alpha (a)0.45
Mean0.54
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.86
df130
t2.03
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.67
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.65
Sortino ratio4.59
Upside Potential Ratio11.99
Upside part of mean1.41
Downside part of mean-0.87
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms79
N negative terms52
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.54
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.52
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.44
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)4.77
p(b)0.26
t(a)1.78
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.93
Treynor index (mean / b)1.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.44
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11.03
Median1.07
Quartile 31.10
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.04
Mean of quarter 31.09
Mean of quarter 41.15
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations192
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.53
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.47
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.11
Quartile 10.11
Median0.11
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-21.86
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.85
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.16
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-405391008
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)27
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.80
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.89
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)8.40
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.96
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.90
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.99
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)7.81
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs10.92
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal44.82
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.66
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.77
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)6.05
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs8.82
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal35.42

Trading record

Placed 1223 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
BMY long8Aug 7, 2026Aug 20, 2026$24
GDDY long5Aug 7, 2026Aug 20, 2026$28
ADBE long2Aug 7, 2026Aug 20, 2026$19
INTU long2Aug 7, 2026Aug 20, 2026$75
ASND long2Jul 6, 2026Aug 17, 2026($50)
HPQ long29Aug 7, 2026Aug 17, 2026$41
SSL long181Jul 20, 2026Aug 17, 2026$17
HG long28Jul 20, 2026Aug 17, 2026$17
LQDA long13Jun 8, 2026Aug 17, 2026$92
GEN long24Aug 7, 2026Aug 10, 2026($11)
SU long29May 18, 2026Aug 10, 2026($191)
PAYC long3Aug 7, 2026Aug 10, 2026($18)
KLIC long5Jun 29, 2026Aug 10, 2026($151)
TZA short85Jul 21, 2026Jul 21, 2026$6
SMCI long160Jun 18, 2026Jul 6, 2026($259)
BP long55May 4, 2026Jun 29, 2026($333)
MPC long3May 11, 2026Jun 18, 2026($29)
DOW long24Jun 8, 2026Jun 18, 2026($39)
MGM long18May 18, 2026Jun 18, 2026$193
KHC long38May 4, 2026Jun 18, 2026$27
HSY long2Jun 15, 2026Jun 18, 2026($11)
KR long11May 4, 2026Jun 18, 2026($52)
IEF long48May 7, 2026Jun 18, 2026($30)
KSS long78May 4, 2026Jun 18, 2026$152
FANG long4Jun 15, 2026Jun 18, 2026($24)
SJM long10May 4, 2026Jun 15, 2026$71
VSXY long19Jun 2, 2026Jun 8, 2026$572
HSY long3May 4, 2026May 11, 2026$12
LLY long1May 4, 2026May 7, 2026$26
GDDY long5May 4, 2026May 5, 2026($1)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.