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Prophet Alpha

Equity · Stocks · Started Dec 2025

hypothetical · Cumul. Return
104.8%
Max Drawdown
15.3%
Trades
9895
Win Trades
32.9%
Profit Factor
1.60
Win Months
88.9%
Subscribe Full access for $99/month

Non-hedged Equity Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20250.30.3
202617.123.53.27.72.73.121.6-1.4104.1

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/18/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$35,000
Age8 months
C2 RankTop 8.6%
What it tradesStocks
# Trades9895
# Profitable3251
% Profitable32.9%
Avg trade duration4.3 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown15.3%
drawdown periodFeb 11, 2026 - April 21, 2026
Cumul. Return104.8%
Avg win$20
Avg loss$6

Ratios

W:L ratio1.62
Sharpe Ratio2.78
Sortino Ratio9.42
Calmar Ratio24.27

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.20
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life13.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)91.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)183.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)1.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)224.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity2.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss5.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated100.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)975
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)987
C2 Score914
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)993

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$6
Avg Win$20
# Winners3251
Sum Trade PL (losers)$39,935
Sum Trade PL (winners)$64,613
Num Months Winners8
# Losers6644
% Winners32.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct-26

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table9

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)256.95
Avg Position Time (hrs)4.28
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago2

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.93
Daily leverage (max)4.18

Regression

Alpha0.32
Beta-0.48
Treynor Index-0.62

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-121.59
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.82
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats35.22
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats41.06
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.37
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.31
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.50
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.18
df6
t2.80
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio6.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation6.31
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean1.50
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0.57
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms0
N of observations7
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion1.50
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance-0.02
r-0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.61
Mean Square Error0.18
DF error5
t(b)-0.76
p(b)0.76
t(a)2.80
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.75
Jensen alpha (a)1.61
Mean1.35
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.33
df6
t2.93
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio7.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation6.52
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean1.35
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0.51
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms0
N of observations7
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion1.35
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance-0.02
r-0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.76
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.45
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error5
t(b)-0.78
p(b)0.76
t(a)2.94
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.72
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.77
Jensen alpha (a)1.45
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean1.23
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.87
df173
t3.17
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio6.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation6.31
Sortino ratio13.85
Upside Potential Ratio21.36
Upside part of mean1.90
Downside part of mean-0.67
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms90
N negative terms84
N of observations174
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion1.23
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance-0.01
r-0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.31
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error172
t(b)-2.79
p(b)0.60
t(a)3.44
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.51
Jensen alpha (a)1.31
Mean1.18
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.85
df173
t3.15
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio6.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation6.29
Sortino ratio13.18
Upside Potential Ratio20.67
Upside part of mean1.85
Downside part of mean-0.67
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms90
N negative terms84
N of observations174
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion1.18
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance-0.01
r-0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.48
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.26
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error172
t(b)-2.84
p(b)0.61
t(a)3.41
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.99
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.46
Jensen alpha (a)1.26
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.79
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.07
df130
t2.19
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.87
Sortino ratio8.82
Upside Potential Ratio16.71
Upside part of mean1.51
Downside part of mean-0.71
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms65
N negative terms66
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.79
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance-0.01
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.86
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error129
t(b)-1.86
p(b)0.60
t(a)2.37
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.57
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.70
Jensen alpha (a)0.86
Mean0.76
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.02
df130
t2.15
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.82
Sortino ratio8.39
Upside Potential Ratio16.26
Upside part of mean1.48
Downside part of mean-0.71
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms65
N negative terms66
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.76
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance-0.01
r-0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.82
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error129
t(b)-1.92
p(b)0.61
t(a)2.33
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.60
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.52
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.58
Jensen alpha (a)0.82
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum1.01
Quartile 11.04
Median1.12
Quartile 31.18
Maximum1.33
Mean of quarter 11.01
Mean of quarter 21.09
Mean of quarter 31.12
Mean of quarter 41.28
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations174
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high17
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.34
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations18
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.29
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.38
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-438642144
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)69
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)2.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.98
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal32.41
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.86
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.35
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)24.27
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs40.74
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal69.46
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.97
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)12.41
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs18.21
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal42.03

Trading record

Placed 10133 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
PLTR long19Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026($1)
SLV long45Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026($4)
MSTR long24Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026$3
META long9Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026$12
SLV long42Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026$4
AMD long4Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026($32)
PLTR long14Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026($0)
USO long19Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026$2
GOOGL long6Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026($2)
COIN long18Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026($61)
PLTR long24Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026($0)
NVDA long8Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026($8)
USO long24Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026($8)
NFLX long37Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026$0
MSTR long22Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026($5)
META long4Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026$2
META long6Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026$1
META long6Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026($1)
USO long22Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026$1
USO long22Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026($0)
USO long20Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026$14
SLV long27Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026($2)
USO long19Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026$1
AMD long4Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026($2)
USO long19Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026($2)
USO long16Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026($1)
MSTR long16Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026($5)
USO long17Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026($0)
NVDA long7Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026($1)
MSTR long18Aug 20, 2026Aug 20, 2026($5)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.