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Simply Leveraged

Equity · Stocks · Started Dec 2025

Trades Own Strategy BrokerTransmit

hypothetical · Cumul. Return
9.3%
Max Drawdown
43.5%
Trades
28
Win Trades
32.1%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
44.4%
Subscribe Full access for $25/month

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2025-1.4-1.4
2026-0.414.7-21.035.732.4-16.4-24.78.510.9

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/27/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$5,000
Age8 months
C2 RankTop 8.6%
What it tradesStocks
# Trades28
# Profitable9
% Profitable32.1%
Avg trade duration26.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown43.5%
drawdown periodJune 03, 2026 - July 29, 2026
Cumul. Return9.3%
Avg win$1,535
Avg loss$580

Ratios

W:L ratio1.25
Sharpe Ratio0.41
Sortino Ratio0.56
Calmar Ratio0.42

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.52
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life10.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-1.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)14.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)17.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity59.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.3%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss77.0%
Chance of 20% account loss42.5%
Chance of 30% account loss20.5%
Chance of 40% account loss5.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)691
C2 Score914
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?187442
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$580
Avg Win$1,535
# Winners9
Sum Trade PL (losers)$11,023
Sum Trade PL (winners)$13,819
Num Months Winners4
# Losers19
% Winners32.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct13

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table9

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)37519.73
Avg Position Time (hrs)625.33
Avg Trade Length26.10
Last Trade Ago6

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.86
Daily leverage (max)3.32

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta1.78
Treynor Index0.03

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades8.68
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.99
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.17
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.49
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.15

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.33
SD0.88
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.33
df6
t0.29
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.90
Sortino ratio0.70
Upside Potential Ratio3.00
Upside part of mean1.41
Downside part of mean-1.08
Upside SD0.67
Downside SD0.47
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms4
N of observations7
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.88
Covariance0.12
r0.86
b (slope, estimate of beta)4.58
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.24
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error5
t(b)3.79
p(b)0.01
t(a)-0.36
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta7.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.45
Treynor index (mean / b)0.07
Jensen alpha (a)-0.24
Mean0.02
SD0.84
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.02
df6
t0.02
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.58
Sortino ratio0.03
Upside Potential Ratio2.32
Upside part of mean1.23
Downside part of mean-1.21
Upside SD0.58
Downside SD0.53
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms4
N of observations7
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.84
Covariance0.11
r0.84
b (slope, estimate of beta)4.41
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.47
Mean Square Error0.25
DF error5
t(b)3.43
p(b)0.01
t(a)-0.70
p(a)0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta7.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.26
Treynor index (mean / b)0.00
Jensen alpha (a)-0.47
VaR(95%)0.33
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.39
VaR(95%)0.22
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.34
Mean0.23
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.52
df167
t0.42
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.92
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.97
Sortino ratio0.72
Upside Potential Ratio8.17
Upside part of mean2.65
Downside part of mean-2.41
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.32
N nonnegative terms85
N negative terms83
N of observations168
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.23
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance0.03
r0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.71
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error166
t(b)7.87
p(b)0.24
t(a)-0.03
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.93
Treynor index (mean / b)0.14
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean0.13
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.30
df167
t0.24
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.75
Sortino ratio0.40
Upside Potential Ratio7.79
Upside part of mean2.60
Downside part of mean-2.47
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.33
N nonnegative terms85
N negative terms83
N of observations168
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance0.03
r0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error166
t(b)7.90
p(b)0.24
t(a)-0.21
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.85
Treynor index (mean / b)0.08
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.22
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.48
df130
t0.34
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.29
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.26
Sortino ratio0.67
Upside Potential Ratio8.03
Upside part of mean2.64
Downside part of mean-2.42
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.33
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance0.03
r0.54
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.75
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.14
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error129
t(b)7.38
p(b)0.17
t(a)-0.26
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.93
Treynor index (mean / b)0.13
Jensen alpha (a)-0.14
Mean0.12
SD0.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.26
df130
t0.18
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.03
Sortino ratio0.35
Upside Potential Ratio7.64
Upside part of mean2.59
Downside part of mean-2.48
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.34
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.46
Covariance0.04
r0.55
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.77
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.23
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error129
t(b)7.44
p(b)0.17
t(a)-0.42
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.30
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.85
Treynor index (mean / b)0.07
Jensen alpha (a)-0.23
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.76
Quartile 10.82
Median0.99
Quartile 31.23
Maximum1.37
Mean of quarter 10.78
Mean of quarter 20.91
Mean of quarter 31.13
Mean of quarter 41.35
Inter Quartile Range0.42
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations168
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.13
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.20
Quartile 10.25
Median0.29
Quartile 30.33
Maximum0.38
Mean of quarter 10.20
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.38
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.42
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.25
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.32
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.86
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.25
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.46
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.60
Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.08
Quartile 30.18
Maximum0.42
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.31
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.42
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-413111296
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)56
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.12
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.12
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.42
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.70
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.21
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.15
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.37
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.51
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.79

Trading record

Placed 66 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
LABU long32Jul 6, 2026Aug 10, 2026($825)
SOXL long50Jul 6, 2026Jul 28, 2026($4,883)
SOXL short20Jul 2, 2026Jul 6, 2026($499)
SOXL long60May 21, 2026Jun 26, 2026($181)
DRAM long85May 22, 2026Jun 24, 2026$430
CHAT long45May 22, 2026Jun 24, 2026$49
TQQQ long160Apr 13, 2026Jun 23, 2026$2,746
SPXL long46Apr 13, 2026Jun 23, 2026$1,204
SOXL long93Apr 13, 2026May 18, 2026$7,096
USD long35Feb 27, 2026Mar 27, 2026($236)
LABU long10Mar 25, 2026Mar 27, 2026($81)
BULZ long125Mar 10, 2026Mar 26, 2026($471)
EDC long25Feb 27, 2026Mar 23, 2026($506)
NUGT long8Mar 10, 2026Mar 23, 2026($701)
AGQ long10Feb 25, 2026Mar 23, 2026($714)
UGL long25Feb 24, 2026Mar 23, 2026($501)
NUGT long36Jan 6, 2026Mar 3, 2026$1,248
SPXL long33Dec 31, 2025Feb 12, 2026($253)
SOXL long105Jan 29, 2026Feb 12, 2026($466)
TQQQ long139Dec 31, 2025Jan 29, 2026$218
LABU long48Dec 31, 2025Jan 6, 2026($81)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.