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Futures · Futures · Started Sep 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
33.8%
Max Drawdown
14.1%
Trades
751
Win Trades
36.0%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
66.7%
Subscribe Full access for $100/month

About this strategy

With the increased number of subscribers and so AUM the maximum number of tradable contracts decreased. To prevent an event where this number is lower than ares needs I have limited the number of subscribers.

System ares trades MNQ Future long and short. Risk per trade is 1% of equity. No overnight. Always with stop.
The system is backtested and is 100% automated.
For deeper information of the backtest results you can pm me.
TOS not possible because of the Tax Regulations for derivatives in Germany.

Trend-following Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-1.216.3-1.70.313.3
2021-4.8-2.94.01.41.38.40.310.60.8-2.6-3.95.017.8
20226.75.48.314.013.22.2-0.72.82.2-1.0-5.312.376.4
20232.9-0.6-7.36.13.95.2-6.28.3-2.8-3.39.42.417.8
20245.75.3-0.716.12.02.64.51.11.73.11.312.870.1
2025-2.8-0.9-3.3-0.1-0.3-1.9-1.47.50.10.34.14.15.0
2026-2.617.8-6.51.50.33.50.60.714.6

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/12/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$90,000
Age72 months
C2 RankTop 0.1%
What it tradesFutures
# Trades751
# Profitable270
% Profitable36.0%
Avg trade duration2.3 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown14.1%
drawdown periodOct 05, 2021 - Nov 26, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)33.8%
Avg win$887
Avg loss$331

Ratios

W:L ratio1.50
Sharpe Ratio1.53
Sortino Ratio3.02
Calmar Ratio3.69

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life129.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)337.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)33.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)35.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity3.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss8.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)986
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)999
C2 Score999
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)997

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$331
Avg Win$887
# Winners270
Sum Trade PL (losers)$159,304
Sum Trade PL (winners)$239,540
Num Months Winners48
# Losers481
% Winners36.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table72

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)135.97
Avg Position Time (hrs)2.27
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago2

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.27
Daily leverage (max)12.59

Regression

Alpha0.08
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index-6.06

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades10.91
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.82
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats86.67
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats97.06
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.21
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.22
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.09

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.32
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.97
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.95
df65
t4.63
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.85
Sortino ratio5.71
Upside Potential Ratio7.34
Upside part of mean0.41
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms20
N of observations66
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.32
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance-0.00
r-0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.34
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error64
t(b)-1.13
p(b)0.87
t(a)4.78
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.48
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.34
Mean0.30
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.91
df65
t4.53
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.81
Sortino ratio5.30
Upside Potential Ratio6.92
Upside part of mean0.39
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms20
N of observations66
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance-0.00
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error64
t(b)-1.08
p(b)0.86
t(a)4.66
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.25
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.31
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.06
df1460
t4.87
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.90
Sortino ratio4.11
Upside Potential Ratio11.63
Upside part of mean0.88
Downside part of mean-0.57
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms427
N negative terms1034
N of observations1461
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1459
t(b)-0.59
p(b)0.51
t(a)4.90
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.44
Treynor index (mean / b)-22.98
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
Mean0.30
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.00
df1460
t4.73
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.84
Sortino ratio3.93
Upside Potential Ratio11.44
Upside part of mean0.87
Downside part of mean-0.57
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms427
N negative terms1034
N of observations1461
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.30
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1459
t(b)-0.60
p(b)0.51
t(a)4.75
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.43
Treynor index (mean / b)-21.93
Jensen alpha (a)0.30
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.13
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.08
df130
t0.77
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.86
Sortino ratio1.92
Upside Potential Ratio10.03
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.55
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms31
N negative terms100
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)0.81
p(b)0.45
t(a)0.69
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.46
Treynor index (mean / b)2.16
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
Mean0.12
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.03
df130
t0.73
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.81
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.80
Sortino ratio1.80
Upside Potential Ratio9.91
Upside part of mean0.68
Downside part of mean-0.56
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms31
N negative terms100
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)0.82
p(b)0.45
t(a)0.66
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)2.03
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations66
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.99
Median1.02
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.34
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.44
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations1461
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low74
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high172
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high27
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations13
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.30
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-3.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations74
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.70
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.72
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations3
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.03
Median0.03
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-374182368
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)52
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.93
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.39
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.61
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.35
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.97
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.93
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.39
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.69
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.23
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal21.85
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.40
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.40
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.15

Trading record

Placed 1058 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ U6short6Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026($66)
MNQ U6short8Aug 18, 2026Aug 18, 2026($828)
MNQ U6short9Aug 18, 2026Aug 18, 2026($716)
MNQ U6long6Aug 17, 2026Aug 17, 2026($900)
MNQ U6long6Aug 13, 2026Aug 13, 2026$1,986
MNQ U6long4Aug 7, 2026Aug 7, 2026($811)
MNQ U6long4Aug 7, 2026Aug 7, 2026($798)
MNQ U6long3Aug 4, 2026Aug 4, 2026$2,900
MNQ U6short2Jul 31, 2026Jul 31, 2026($777)
MNQ U6long2Jul 30, 2026Jul 30, 2026$636
MNQ U6short6Jul 23, 2026Jul 23, 2026($90)
MNQ U6long3Jul 21, 2026Jul 21, 2026$79
MNQ U6short4Jul 21, 2026Jul 21, 2026($726)
MNQ U6short3Jul 16, 2026Jul 16, 2026($718)
MNQ U6short4Jul 15, 2026Jul 15, 2026$1,705
MNQ U6short4Jul 15, 2026Jul 15, 2026($718)
MNQ U6short3Jul 14, 2026Jul 14, 2026($807)
MNQ U6short5Jul 13, 2026Jul 13, 2026$256
MNQ U6short5Jul 13, 2026Jul 13, 2026($852)
MNQ U6long3Jul 9, 2026Jul 9, 2026$435
MNQ U6long3Jul 9, 2026Jul 9, 2026($779)
MNQ U6short3Jul 7, 2026Jul 7, 2026($15)
MNQ U6long2Jul 6, 2026Jul 6, 2026($589)
MNQ U6short4Jul 2, 2026Jul 2, 2026$3,643
MNQ U6long3Jun 30, 2026Jun 30, 2026$2,025
MNQ U6long2Jun 29, 2026Jun 29, 2026($613)
MNQ U6short3Jun 25, 2026Jun 25, 2026$2,132
MNQ U6short3Jun 17, 2026Jun 17, 2026($747)
MNQ M6long1Jun 11, 2026Jun 11, 2026($488)
MNQ M6long1Jun 11, 2026Jun 11, 2026($488)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.