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Alpha Capital

Forex · Started Aug 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
134.8%
Max Drawdown
66.5%
Trades
165
Win Trades
69.1%
Profit Factor
2.80
Win Months
75.7%
Subscribe Full access for $150/month

About this strategy

Combination of algorithm trading and swing trading to exploit market opportunities in stocks, ETFs and forex

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20230.46.6-4.97.0-0.38.7
20242.54.8-0.34.05.49.0-8.422.4-38.591.018.113.5125.9
202534.45.610.91.42.410.044.02.4-37.054.3-6.3-9.2119.4
202631.712.718.37.113.9-21.519.623.5148.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/15/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$90,000
Age37 months
C2 Rank356
What it tradesStocks, Forex
# Trades165
# Profitable114
% Profitable69.1%
Avg trade duration10.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown66.5%
drawdown periodApril 03, 2025 - April 08, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)134.8%
Avg win$1,161
Avg loss$943

Ratios

W:L ratio2.77
Sharpe Ratio1.31
Sortino Ratio2.11
Calmar Ratio2.69

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.22
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life72.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)1163.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)134.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)1.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)138.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.7%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.3%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss78.0%
Chance of 20% account loss51.0%
Chance of 30% account loss34.0%
Chance of 40% account loss26.5%
Chance of 50% account loss12.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)6.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)610
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)920
C2 Score356
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)849

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$943
Avg Win$1,229
# Winners114
Sum Trade PL (losers)$48,101
Sum Trade PL (winners)$140,070
Num Months Winners28
# Losers51
% Winners69.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct385

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table37

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)15114.40
Avg Position Time (hrs)251.91
Avg Trade Length10.50
Last Trade Ago3

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)7.68
Daily leverage (max)38.78

Regression

Alpha0.25
Beta1.01
Treynor Index0.29

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.08
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.48
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.29
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats67.47
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats49.76
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.85
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.04
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.44

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.97
SD0.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.99
df34
t3.48
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.23
Sortino ratio5.23
Upside Potential Ratio6.25
Upside part of mean1.16
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.52
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms29
N negative terms6
N of observations35
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.97
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.48
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.92
Mean Square Error0.23
DF error33
t(b)0.46
p(b)0.32
t(a)2.98
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.54
Treynor index (mean / b)3.50
Jensen alpha (a)0.92
Mean0.84
SD0.44
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.86
df34
t3.24
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.09
Sortino ratio4.01
Upside Potential Ratio5.01
Upside part of mean1.05
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.45
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms29
N negative terms6
N of observations35
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.84
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.44
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.27
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.79
Mean Square Error0.20
DF error33
t(b)0.49
p(b)0.31
t(a)2.79
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.36
Treynor index (mean / b)3.08
Jensen alpha (a)0.79
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean1.10
SD0.66
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.68
df776
t2.89
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.82
Sortino ratio2.65
Upside Potential Ratio8.77
Upside part of mean3.64
Downside part of mean-2.54
Upside SD0.51
Downside SD0.42
N nonnegative terms456
N negative terms321
N of observations777
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion1.10
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.66
Covariance0.02
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.90
Mean Square Error0.41
DF error775
t(b)6.75
p(b)0
t(a)2.42
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.63
Treynor index (mean / b)1.08
Jensen alpha (a)0.90
Mean0.89
SD0.66
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.35
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.35
df776
t2.32
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.49
Sortino ratio1.96
Upside Potential Ratio7.80
Upside part of mean3.52
Downside part of mean-2.64
Upside SD0.48
Downside SD0.45
N nonnegative terms456
N negative terms321
N of observations777
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.89
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.66
Covariance0.02
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.69
Mean Square Error0.41
DF error775
t(b)6.95
p(b)0
t(a)1.87
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.42
Treynor index (mean / b)0.84
Jensen alpha (a)0.69
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean1.43
SD0.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.62
df130
t1.86
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.41
Sortino ratio4.21
Upside Potential Ratio12.00
Upside part of mean4.06
Downside part of mean-2.64
Upside SD0.43
Downside SD0.34
N nonnegative terms73
N negative terms58
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion1.43
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.54
Covariance0.02
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.13
Mean Square Error0.26
DF error129
t(b)3.93
p(b)0.30
t(a)1.55
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.57
Treynor index (mean / b)1.13
Jensen alpha (a)1.13
Mean1.28
SD0.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.35
df130
t1.67
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.14
Sortino ratio3.66
Upside Potential Ratio11.38
Upside part of mean3.98
Downside part of mean-2.70
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms73
N negative terms58
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion1.28
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.54
Covariance0.03
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.99
Mean Square Error0.26
DF error129
t(b)4.00
p(b)0.29
t(a)1.36
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.64
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.43
Treynor index (mean / b)1.00
Jensen alpha (a)0.99
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations35
Minimum0.75
Quartile 11.01
Median1.06
Quartile 31.12
Maximum1.39
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.03
Mean of quarter 31.09
Mean of quarter 41.27
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.78
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.24
Number of observations777
Minimum0.69
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.32
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low44
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high56
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations131
Minimum0.89
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.03
Median0.07
Quartile 30.18
Maximum0.25
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.18
Mean of quarter 40.25
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations52
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.53
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.39
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.35
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.36
Number of observations7
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.04
Median0.06
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.12
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-384879168
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)5
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)3.63
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.32
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.33
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.33
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.53
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)4.33
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.43
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.69
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.17
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal18.50
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.79
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.59
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)12.83
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs16.05
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal41.84

Trading record

Placed 226 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
BITX short4581Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026($51)
BITX long8400Jun 2, 2026Jul 23, 2026($940)
GBP/CAD short372Jun 1, 2026Jun 4, 2026($1,814)
AUD/JPY short698Jun 1, 2026Jun 4, 2026$622
GBP/CAD short550May 24, 2026May 27, 2026$1,040
AUD/NZD short1032May 24, 2026May 27, 2026$8,667
COIN long440Mar 27, 2026May 21, 2026$8,843
AUD/NZD short1890Mar 11, 2026Mar 23, 2026$8,877
MARA long6930Feb 5, 2026Mar 11, 2026$6,005
GBP/NZD short366Feb 3, 2026Feb 5, 2026($728)
AUD/CAD short914Jan 27, 2026Feb 5, 2026($1,623)
EUR/NZD short464Jan 27, 2026Feb 3, 2026$8,419
UCO long3000Oct 30, 2025Jan 26, 2026$955
EUR/NZD short1475Oct 7, 2025Oct 30, 2025$3,584
EUR/CAD short900Oct 2, 2025Oct 7, 2025$4,725
EUR/NZD short1000Sep 18, 2025Oct 2, 2025($6,695)
EUR/CAD short850Sep 5, 2025Sep 18, 2025($3,852)
UCO long1067Sep 4, 2025Sep 5, 2025($697)
TMF long670Aug 26, 2025Sep 4, 2025$618
EUR/CAD short10Aug 25, 2025Aug 25, 2025($0)
EUR/NZD short120Aug 25, 2025Aug 25, 2025$1
EUR/CAD short450Aug 13, 2025Aug 20, 2025($658)
TMF long1050Jul 21, 2025Aug 4, 2025$2,620
EUR/USD short1106Jun 25, 2025Jul 16, 2025$3,659
GBP/USD short315Jun 25, 2025Jul 3, 2025($874)
ALB long700Jun 23, 2025Jun 24, 2025$1,647
EUR/USD short647.5Jun 16, 2025Jun 18, 2025$3,570
EUR/USD short595Jun 12, 2025Jun 13, 2025$4,126
ALB long541.8May 7, 2025Jun 10, 2025$2,939
UCO long1575May 5, 2025May 9, 2025$1,820

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.