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TradePathStrategies

Futures · Futures · Started Jul 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
49.9%
Max Drawdown
83.2%
Trades
525
Win Trades
85.1%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
73.1%
Subscribe Full access for $149/month

Commodities Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202426.4-24.944.114.24.17.574.9
20250.414.52.218.95.3-9.4-6.411.7-15.628.725.80.691.6
202613.26.58.7-38.5-67.8112.035.3-4.4-28.7

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/3/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$45,000
Age26 months
C2 Rank283
What it tradesFutures
# Trades525
# Profitable447
% Profitable85.1%
Avg trade duration3.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown83.2%
drawdown periodApril 12, 2026 - June 03, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)49.9%
Avg win$341
Avg loss$1,496

Ratios

W:L ratio1.31
Sharpe Ratio0.75
Sortino Ratio1.23
Calmar Ratio0.82

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.29
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life38.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)100.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)49.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.5%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)58.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity90.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.2%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss83.0%
Chance of 20% account loss75.5%
Chance of 30% account loss54.5%
Chance of 40% account loss40.5%
Chance of 50% account loss24.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)12.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)5.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)533
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)934
C2 Score283
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)683

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,523
Avg Win$341
# Winners447
Sum Trade PL (losers)$118,780
Sum Trade PL (winners)$152,345
Num Months Winners19
# Losers78
% Winners85.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct405

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table26

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)4958.95
Avg Position Time (hrs)82.65
Avg Trade Length3.40
Last Trade Ago0

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)5.86
Daily leverage (max)26.42

Regression

Alpha0.25
Beta-1.41
Treynor Index-0.14

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.07
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades16.32
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.20
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats84.90
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats66.70
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.61
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.55
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.06

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.81
SD0.82
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.96
df24
t1.43
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.34
Sortino ratio1.54
Upside Potential Ratio2.83
Upside part of mean1.49
Downside part of mean-0.68
Upside SD0.65
Downside SD0.53
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms8
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.81
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.82
Covariance-0.03
r-0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.96
Mean Square Error0.66
DF error23
t(b)-1.05
p(b)0.85
t(a)1.65
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.80
Jensen alpha (a)0.96
Mean0.38
SD1.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.36
df24
t0.54
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.72
Sortino ratio0.45
Upside Potential Ratio1.56
Upside part of mean1.31
Downside part of mean-0.93
Upside SD0.56
Downside SD0.84
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms8
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.38
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion1.02
Covariance-0.04
r-0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.58
Mean Square Error1.02
DF error23
t(b)-1.25
p(b)0.89
t(a)0.81
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.58
VaR(95%)0.36
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.44
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.22
Mean0.71
SD0.72
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.99
df553
t1.43
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.33
Sortino ratio1.63
Upside Potential Ratio9.08
Upside part of mean3.96
Downside part of mean-3.25
Upside SD0.57
Downside SD0.44
N nonnegative terms303
N negative terms251
N of observations554
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.71
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.72
Covariance-0.03
r-0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.89
Mean Square Error0.47
DF error552
t(b)-7.17
p(b)1
t(a)1.87
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.82
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.55
Jensen alpha (a)0.89
Mean0.46
SD0.70
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.65
df553
t0.94
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.00
Sortino ratio1.00
Upside Potential Ratio8.36
Upside part of mean3.81
Downside part of mean-3.35
Upside SD0.54
Downside SD0.46
N nonnegative terms303
N negative terms251
N of observations554
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.70
Covariance-0.03
r-0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.61
Mean Square Error0.46
DF error552
t(b)-7.15
p(b)1
t(a)1.32
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.53
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.61
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean-0.60
SD0.84
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.71
df130
t-0.50
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.07
Sortino ratio-0.99
Upside Potential Ratio6.94
Upside part of mean4.19
Downside part of mean-4.79
Upside SD0.58
Downside SD0.60
N nonnegative terms71
N negative terms60
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion-0.60
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.84
Covariance-0.05
r-0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.27
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.18
Mean Square Error0.61
DF error129
t(b)-4.67
p(b)0.74
t(a)-0.16
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.02
Treynor index (mean / b)0.26
Jensen alpha (a)-0.18
Mean-0.95
SD0.84
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.12
df130
t-0.80
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.65
Sortino ratio-1.49
Upside Potential Ratio6.32
Upside part of mean4.04
Downside part of mean-4.99
Upside SD0.55
Downside SD0.64
N nonnegative terms71
N negative terms60
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.95
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.84
Covariance-0.05
r-0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.55
Mean Square Error0.61
DF error129
t(b)-4.67
p(b)0.74
t(a)-0.50
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.24
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.65
Treynor index (mean / b)0.42
Jensen alpha (a)-0.55
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations25
Minimum0.31
Quartile 10.96
Median1.07
Quartile 31.24
Maximum1.51
Mean of quarter 10.81
Mean of quarter 21.04
Mean of quarter 31.15
Mean of quarter 41.33
Inter Quartile Range0.28
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.31
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.32
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.73
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.91
Number of observations554
Minimum0.84
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low32
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high33
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations131
Minimum0.84
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.68
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.04
Median0.12
Quartile 30.23
Maximum0.69
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.12
Mean of quarter 30.23
Mean of quarter 40.69
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.69
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations47
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.03
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.77
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.24
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.35
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.29
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.39
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.47
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.50
Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.77
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.77
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.77
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-404635616
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)52
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.65
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.51
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.74
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.74
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.16
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.85
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.62
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.82
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.56
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.42
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.74
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.60
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.79
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.79
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.74

Trading record

Placed 1161 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MES U6short2Aug 21, 2026Aug 24, 2026$338
MES U6short5Aug 4, 2026Aug 18, 2026$372
MES U6short2Aug 4, 2026Aug 4, 2026($90)
MES U6short2Aug 4, 2026Aug 4, 2026($58)
ES U6short1Aug 3, 2026Aug 3, 2026$180
MNQ U6long1Jul 30, 2026Jul 30, 2026$132
MNQ U6short1Jul 30, 2026Jul 30, 2026($91)
MNQ U6long1Jul 30, 2026Jul 30, 2026$64
MNQ U6short1Jul 30, 2026Jul 30, 2026$66
MNQ U6short1Jul 29, 2026Jul 30, 2026$199
MNQ U6long1Jul 29, 2026Jul 29, 2026$318
MNQ U6short1Jul 29, 2026Jul 29, 2026$198
MNQ U6long2Jul 29, 2026Jul 29, 2026($79)
MNQ U6short1Jul 29, 2026Jul 29, 2026$206
MNQ U6long6Jul 27, 2026Jul 28, 2026$180
MNQ U6long1Jul 27, 2026Jul 27, 2026$197
MNQ U6short1Jul 27, 2026Jul 27, 2026$133
MNQ U6long2Jul 27, 2026Jul 27, 2026$230
MNQ U6long1Jul 27, 2026Jul 27, 2026($270)
MNQ U6short1Jul 27, 2026Jul 27, 2026$180
MNQ U6long1Jul 27, 2026Jul 27, 2026($83)
MES U6long1Jul 27, 2026Jul 27, 2026($37)
MNQ U6short2Jul 27, 2026Jul 27, 2026$134
MNQ U6short1Jul 26, 2026Jul 26, 2026$99
MES U6long1Jul 24, 2026Jul 26, 2026$169
MNQ U6long2Jul 24, 2026Jul 26, 2026$701
MNQ U6short1Jul 24, 2026Jul 24, 2026$133
MNQ U6long2Jul 24, 2026Jul 24, 2026$188
MES U6long3Jul 24, 2026Jul 24, 2026$164
MES U6short1Jul 24, 2026Jul 24, 2026$7

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.