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Resilient Investments

Stocks · Started Jul 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
33.5%
Max Drawdown
32.3%
Trades
165
Win Trades
50.9%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
65.4%
Subscribe Full access for $165/month

About this strategy

Resilient Investments is a concentrated, automated growth strategy designed for aggressive investors who want maximum exposure to Nasdaq-100 bull markets while maintaining a reliable safety valve during extreme stress. Unlike complex multi-strategy portfolios that attempt to profit from every market wiggle, this system is built on a straightforward philosophy of tiered conviction. Rather than strictly forcing trades, we scale our participation based on market clarity: aggressively capturing upside in the technology sector when signals are strong, dialing back to a moderate exposure when conditions are mixed, or sitting safely on the sidelines when risks outweigh rewards.

The strategy is strictly long-only and never shorts the market and is a lite version of the sister strategy, Adaptive Investments. Similarly, resilient Investments uses a proprietary Nearest-Neighbor (KNN) machine learning engine to scan decades of historical data, looking for patterns that match the current market environment. Based on this analysis, the algorithm dynamically rotates the portfolio between three distinct levels of aggression.

When the market data signals a high-probability "Risk-On" environment, the strategy moves to a maximum leverage point of 3x by allocating 100% of capital to TQQQ. In periods of moderate conviction or elevated volatility, it shifts to a cautious 1.5x stance, holding a mix of 50% Cash and 50% TQQQ. Crucially, when the system detects abnormal volatility or bearish probabilities, it retreats entirely to a 0x leverage point, moving 100% to cash to preserve capital.

Subscriber Guide: Best Practices
To replicate this strategy effectively, please note the following:
1. Automation is Critical: Trades are executed approximately 15-20 seconds before the market close. Because timing is essential to the strategy's accuracy, we highly recommend using C2’s "Auto-Trade" feature rather than manual execution.
2. Frequency: Expect a maximum of two trades per day (typically when executing a stop and returning to a position).

Important Note on Performance Data Please be aware that strategy development and backtest performance data are not released. We strongly recommend reviewing the Statistics Tab on this profile to analyze various performance attributes under live market conditions.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2024-4.53.1-1.8-4.25.82.80.7
20256.9-4.3-4.28.72.49.41.312.13.39.93.13.965.0
202611.39.2-12.030.1-1.2-11.2-10.50.910.4

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/22/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age25 months
C2 Rank390
What it tradesStocks
# Trades165
# Profitable84
% Profitable50.9%
Avg trade duration2.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown32.3%
drawdown periodJan 23, 2025 - April 07, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)33.5%
Avg win$1,079
Avg loss$790

Ratios

W:L ratio1.43
Sharpe Ratio0.95
Sortino Ratio1.59
Calmar Ratio2.03

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.48
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life37.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)45.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)33.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)42.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity27.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss43.0%
Chance of 20% account loss13.0%
Chance of 30% account loss3.0%
Chance of 40% account loss2.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.8%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)781
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)923
C2 Score390
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)762

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$790
Avg Win$1,079
# Winners84
Sum Trade PL (losers)$64,008
Sum Trade PL (winners)$90,675
Num Months Winners17
# Losers81
% Winners50.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct408

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table26

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3789.97
Avg Position Time (hrs)63.17
Avg Trade Length2.60
Last Trade Ago2

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.50
Daily leverage (max)3.51

Regression

Alpha0.05
Beta0.79
Treynor Index0.11

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.06
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.66
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.24
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.68
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.18
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.27

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.38
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.19
df23
t1.75
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.62
Sortino ratio2.57
Upside Potential Ratio4.21
Upside part of mean0.63
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms8
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.38
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.02
r0.57
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.46
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error22
t(b)3.24
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.04
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.60
Treynor index (mean / b)0.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
Mean0.33
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.09
df23
t1.60
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.51
Sortino ratio2.13
Upside Potential Ratio3.77
Upside part of mean0.59
Downside part of mean-0.26
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms8
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.02
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error22
t(b)3.16
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.93
p(a)0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)0.24
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean0.36
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.41
df539
t2.03
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.78
Sortino ratio2.36
Upside Potential Ratio9.56
Upside part of mean1.46
Downside part of mean-1.10
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms226
N negative terms314
N of observations540
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.36
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.02
r0.47
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.72
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error538
t(b)12.30
p(b)0
t(a)1.64
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.57
Treynor index (mean / b)0.50
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
Mean0.33
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.29
df539
t1.86
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.66
Sortino ratio2.12
Upside Potential Ratio9.27
Upside part of mean1.44
Downside part of mean-1.11
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms226
N negative terms314
N of observations540
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.02
r0.47
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.72
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.24
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error538
t(b)12.36
p(b)0
t(a)1.51
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.54
Treynor index (mean / b)0.45
Jensen alpha (a)0.24
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.11
df130
t-0.08
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.88
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.66
Sortino ratio-0.16
Upside Potential Ratio7.58
Upside part of mean1.34
Downside part of mean-1.37
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms47
N negative terms84
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.02
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.24
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error129
t(b)7.77
p(b)0.16
t(a)-0.79
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-0.24
Mean-0.06
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.24
df130
t-0.17
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.54
Sortino ratio-0.35
Upside Potential Ratio7.37
Upside part of mean1.32
Downside part of mean-1.38
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms47
N negative terms84
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion-0.06
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.02
r0.57
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.27
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error129
t(b)7.78
p(b)0.16
t(a)-0.87
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.78
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.27
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations24
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.99
Median1.04
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.30
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.13
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.30
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-37.45
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.50
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations540
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low30
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high52
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low19
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high16
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.77
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.81
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.07
Quartile 10.07
Median0.10
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.07
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.12
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations39
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.17
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.15
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-383414112
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)74
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.53
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.44
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.41
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.41
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.18
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.53
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.43
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.03
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.15
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.02
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.18
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.18
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.02

Trading record

Placed 99 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TQQQ long680Aug 12, 2026Aug 14, 2026$544
TQQQ long347Aug 7, 2026Aug 10, 2026($319)
TQQQ long357Aug 5, 2026Aug 6, 2026($407)
TQQQ long352Aug 4, 2026Aug 5, 2026($489)
TQQQ long396Jul 31, 2026Aug 3, 2026$1,184
TQQQ long857Jul 27, 2026Jul 28, 2026($2,863)
TQQQ long844Jul 24, 2026Jul 27, 2026$380
TQQQ long843Jul 23, 2026Jul 24, 2026($1,999)
TQQQ long824Jul 20, 2026Jul 23, 2026$196
TQQQ long823Jul 16, 2026Jul 20, 2026($1,389)
TQQQ long393Jul 15, 2026Jul 16, 2026($1,488)
TQQQ long395Jul 13, 2026Jul 14, 2026$896
TQQQ long748Jul 7, 2026Jul 10, 2026$3,749
TQQQ long696Jun 30, 2026Jul 1, 2026($2,826)
TQQQ long390Jun 26, 2026Jun 29, 2026($287)
TQQQ long750Jun 24, 2026Jun 25, 2026$2,168
TQQQ long753Jun 23, 2026Jun 24, 2026($1,621)
TQQQ long341Jun 18, 2026Jun 22, 2026($645)
TQQQ long357Jun 16, 2026Jun 17, 2026($303)
TQQQ long344Jun 15, 2026Jun 16, 2026($969)
TQQQ long733Jun 4, 2026Jun 5, 2026($4,332)
TQQQ long774May 26, 2026May 27, 2026($883)
TQQQ long412May 12, 2026May 14, 2026$1,630
TQQQ long413May 8, 2026May 12, 2026($1,224)
TQQQ long1027Apr 28, 2026Apr 30, 2026$556
TQQQ long997Apr 23, 2026Apr 24, 2026$3,294
TQQQ long1015Apr 21, 2026Apr 23, 2026$1,018
TQQQ long505Apr 20, 2026Apr 21, 2026($514)
TQQQ long1038Apr 15, 2026Apr 16, 2026$792
TQQQ long1627Apr 8, 2026Apr 14, 2026$4,537

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.