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Gold and Silver

Equity · Futures · Started Jan 2025

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
68.7%
Max Drawdown
43.6%
Trades
120
Win Trades
89.2%
Profit Factor
1.60
Win Months
60.0%
Subscribe Full access for $100/month

About this strategy

I back test for bullish sentiment for Gold and Silver. I make sure drawdown is applicable for the momentum by taking dummy trades that have a threshold and exit at a stoploss. Lets profit together!

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202512.821.420.919.23.9-0.3-1.611.616.48.94.08.1220.3
20269.5-12.1-14.5-0.9-1.6-14.5-0.36.5-27.2

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/14/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age20 months
C2 Rank380
What it tradesFutures
# Trades120
# Profitable107
% Profitable89.2%
Avg trade duration4.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown43.6%
drawdown periodJan 26, 2026 - July 16, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)68.7%
Avg win$1,704
Avg loss$8,663

Ratios

W:L ratio1.62
Sharpe Ratio1.61
Sortino Ratio2.32
Calmar Ratio1.75

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.16
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life31.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)102.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)68.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.7%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)71.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity64.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.4%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss43.0%
Chance of 20% account loss16.0%
Chance of 30% account loss3.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)864
C2 Score380
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)695

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$8,663
Avg Win$1,704
# Winners107
Sum Trade PL (losers)$112,616
Sum Trade PL (winners)$182,350
Num Months Winners12
# Losers13
% Winners89.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table20

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)6660.77
Avg Position Time (hrs)111.01
Avg Trade Length4.60
Last Trade Ago0

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.25
Daily leverage (max)5.39

Regression

Alpha0.14
Beta0.27
Treynor Index0.56

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.19
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.10
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.84
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.90
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.21
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.49
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.17

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.63
SD0.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.26
df18
t1.65
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.87
Sortino ratio3.09
Upside Potential Ratio4.72
Upside part of mean0.97
Downside part of mean-0.34
Upside SD0.46
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms8
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.63
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.48
Covariance-0.01
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.67
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error17
t(b)-0.36
p(b)0.56
t(a)1.65
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.54
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.48
Jensen alpha (a)0.67
Mean0.52
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.10
df18
t1.44
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.69
Sortino ratio2.30
Upside Potential Ratio3.89
Upside part of mean0.88
Downside part of mean-0.36
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms8
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.52
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance-0.01
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.55
Mean Square Error0.22
DF error17
t(b)-0.30
p(b)0.55
t(a)1.43
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.35
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.57
Jensen alpha (a)0.55
VaR(95%)0.16
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
Mean0.56
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.95
df416
t2.46
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.51
Sortino ratio2.94
Upside Potential Ratio9.15
Upside part of mean1.75
Downside part of mean-1.19
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms231
N negative terms186
N of observations417
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.56
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.52
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error415
t(b)3.22
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.30
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.96
Treynor index (mean / b)2.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.52
Mean0.52
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.79
df416
t2.27
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.35
Sortino ratio2.62
Upside Potential Ratio8.71
Upside part of mean1.72
Downside part of mean-1.21
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms231
N negative terms186
N of observations417
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.52
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.01
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.48
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error415
t(b)3.14
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.12
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.93
Treynor index (mean / b)2.00
Jensen alpha (a)0.48
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.46
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.51
df130
t-1.79
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.28
Sortino ratio-2.95
Upside Potential Ratio5.22
Upside part of mean0.82
Downside part of mean-1.28
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms62
N negative terms69
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion-0.46
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.55
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)4.60
p(b)0.27
t(a)-2.29
p(a)0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.95
Jensen alpha (a)-0.55
Mean-0.48
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.60
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.59
df130
t-1.84
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.20
Sortino ratio-3.02
Upside Potential Ratio5.12
Upside part of mean0.82
Downside part of mean-1.30
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms62
N negative terms69
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.48
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.57
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)4.60
p(b)0.27
t(a)-2.33
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.98
Jensen alpha (a)-0.57
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations19
Minimum0.79
Quartile 10.97
Median1.04
Quartile 31.12
Maximum1.35
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.08
Mean of quarter 41.23
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.35
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.00
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.53
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.32
Number of observations417
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low20
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high22
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.96
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.17
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.39
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.39
Inter Quartile Range0.19
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations28
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.42
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.25
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.68
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.40
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.00
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)35.15
Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.08
Median0.15
Quartile 30.22
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.29
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-458240832
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)171
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.87
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.73
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.85
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.85
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.60
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.87
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.73
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.75
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.33
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal21.26
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.41
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.36
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.24
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.24
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-14.54

Trading record

Placed 207 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QMGC Z6long1Aug 21, 2026Aug 24, 2026$377
QMGC Z6long1Aug 19, 2026Aug 20, 2026$141
QMGC Z6long1Aug 17, 2026Aug 19, 2026$932
QMGC Z6long1Aug 12, 2026Aug 17, 2026$7
QMGC Z6long1Aug 11, 2026Aug 12, 2026$245
QMGC Z6long1Aug 10, 2026Aug 11, 2026$216
QMGC Z6long1Aug 7, 2026Aug 10, 2026$155
QMGC Z7long1Aug 5, 2026Aug 7, 2026$935
QMGC Z6long1Aug 4, 2026Aug 5, 2026$1,512
QSIL U6long1Jul 31, 2026Aug 4, 2026$2,412
QMGC Q6long2Jul 5, 2026Jul 31, 2026($3,180)
QSIL N6long1May 29, 2026Jul 2, 2026($15,478)
QSIL N6long1May 27, 2026May 28, 2026$1,468
QMGC M6long2Apr 17, 2026May 27, 2026($8,797)
QMGC M6long2Apr 14, 2026Apr 17, 2026$536
QMGC M6long2Apr 10, 2026Apr 14, 2026$1,507
QMGC M6long2Apr 1, 2026Apr 9, 2026$260
QSIL K6long1Mar 31, 2026Apr 1, 2026$1,552
QMGC M6long1Mar 20, 2026Mar 31, 2026$484
QMGC J6long3Mar 2, 2026Mar 20, 2026($22,559)
QMGC J6long3Feb 27, 2026Mar 2, 2026$1,560
QMGC J6long3Feb 25, 2026Feb 27, 2026$744
QMGC J7long1Feb 24, 2026Feb 25, 2026$516
QMGC J6long3Feb 11, 2026Feb 23, 2026$2,828
QMGC J6long3Feb 9, 2026Feb 11, 2026$856
QMGC J6long3Feb 6, 2026Feb 9, 2026$2,936
QI K6long1Feb 4, 2026Feb 5, 2026($32,702)
QMGC J6long3Feb 3, 2026Feb 4, 2026$1,296
QMGC J6long3Jan 30, 2026Feb 3, 2026$1,774
QMGC J6long3Jan 28, 2026Jan 29, 2026($100)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.