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B24-SB

Equity · Stocks · Started Jan 2025

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
31.2%
Max Drawdown
30.3%
Trades
9
Win Trades
66.7%
Profit Factor
9.60
Win Months
50.0%
Subscribe Full access for $60/month

Non-hedged Equity

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2025-0.3-8.1-6.7-0.715.110.710.7-6.04.315.3-9.0-3.318.9
20261.2-12.4-2.231.27.215.43.0-10.230.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/24/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age19 months
C2 Rank267
What it tradesStocks
# Trades9
# Profitable6
% Profitable66.7%
Avg trade duration425.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown30.3%
drawdown periodFeb 19, 2025 - April 08, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)31.2%
Avg win$1,378
Avg loss$289

Ratios

W:L ratio9.64
Sharpe Ratio0.86
Sortino Ratio1.31
Calmar Ratio2.05

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.50
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life25.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)28.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)31.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)41.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity15.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss41.5%
Chance of 20% account loss9.5%
Chance of 30% account loss3.0%
Chance of 40% account loss1.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)703
C2 Score267
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)306

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$232
Avg Win$1,624
# Winners5
Sum Trade PL (losers)$928
Sum Trade PL (winners)$8,118
Num Months Winners11
# Losers4
% Winners55.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct39

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table20

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)609981.81
Avg Position Time (hrs)10166.36
Avg Trade Length423.60
Last Trade Ago151

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.76
Daily leverage (max)1.33

Regression

Alpha0.05
Beta0.88
Treynor Index0.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.06
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.52
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-7.10
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.17
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.35
Hold-and-Hope Ratio2.11

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.48
SD0.42
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.08
df14
t1.28
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.88
Sortino ratio2.58
Upside Potential Ratio4.40
Upside part of mean0.82
Downside part of mean-0.34
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms6
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.48
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.42
Covariance0.04
r0.86
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.98
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error13
t(b)6.05
p(b)0.03
t(a)0.22
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)0.16
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.39
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.94
df14
t1.11
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.85
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.73
Sortino ratio2.00
Upside Potential Ratio3.80
Upside part of mean0.75
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms6
N of observations15
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.39
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.04
r0.85
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.83
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error13
t(b)5.80
p(b)0.03
t(a)0.03
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)0.14
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
Mean0.45
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.33
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.33
df335
t1.51
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.40
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.06
Sortino ratio2.35
Upside Potential Ratio10.35
Upside part of mean1.99
Downside part of mean-1.54
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms180
N negative terms156
N of observations336
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.45
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.03
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.92
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.30
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error334
t(b)10.35
p(b)0
t(a)1.13
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)0.49
Jensen alpha (a)0.30
Mean0.40
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.20
df335
t1.36
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.54
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.93
Sortino ratio2.03
Upside Potential Ratio9.97
Upside part of mean1.95
Downside part of mean-1.55
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms180
N negative terms156
N of observations336
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.40
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.03
r0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.91
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error334
t(b)10.58
p(b)0
t(a)1.01
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.75
Treynor index (mean / b)0.44
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.54
SD0.42
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.27
df130
t0.90
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.04
Sortino ratio2.59
Upside Potential Ratio10.42
Upside part of mean2.17
Downside part of mean-1.63
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.54
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.42
Covariance0.03
r0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.25
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error129
t(b)4.99
p(b)0.25
t(a)0.45
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.35
Treynor index (mean / b)0.47
Jensen alpha (a)0.25
Mean0.46
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.12
df130
t0.79
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.89
Sortino ratio2.13
Upside Potential Ratio9.90
Upside part of mean2.11
Downside part of mean-1.66
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance0.02
r0.41
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error129
t(b)5.04
p(b)0.25
t(a)0.35
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.23
Treynor index (mean / b)0.41
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations15
Minimum0.87
Quartile 10.96
Median1.04
Quartile 31.10
Maximum1.30
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.07
Mean of quarter 41.20
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations336
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.16
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.07
Median0.12
Quartile 30.17
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.12
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.25
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.77
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.27
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.05
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-401952992
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)48
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.56
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.53
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.47
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.47
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.87
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.56
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.53
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.05
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.07
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.29
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.55
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.62
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.14
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.99
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal12.75

Trading record

Placed 5 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
PYPL long11Jan 24, 2025Mar 23, 2026($486)
NOK long134Jul 23, 2025Mar 23, 2026$490
CAKE long20Jan 24, 2025Jul 29, 2025$241
CELH long40Jan 24, 2025Apr 25, 2025$445

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.