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AI SOXL intraday

Equity · Stocks · Started Mar 2025

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
12.8%
Max Drawdown
58.7%
Trades
185
Win Trades
48.1%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
44.4%
Subscribe Full access for $125/month

About this strategy

Investment Strategy Overview

This strategy intraday long and short trades the 3x Semiconductor ETF, SOXL. As a fundamental principle of our strategy, no positions are maintained overnight. This approach is deliberately designed to mitigate some of the inherent volatility associated with these ETFs.


Leveraged ETFs and Risk Mitigation

It is imperative to recognize that leveraged ETFs offer the potential for substantial returns but simultaneously carry a heightened degree of risk, attributable to their 3x leverage. Our approach seeks to mitigate this risk by adopting a dynamic stance that involves holding the long ETF during favorable market conditions while holding the inverse ETF during market downturns. This decision-making process is driven by our machine learning algorithms, ensuring a data-driven and disciplined approach.


Account Requirements and Geographic Considerations

Participants in our strategy should be aware that a margin account is required. We do not employ martingale strategies or margin utilization. In the case of an Individual Retirement Account (IRA), IRA margin is mandatory. Additionally, it's important to note that the ETFs we utilize are not available through Interactive Brokers in Europe.


Account Size and Automation

We recommend a minimum account size of $30,000 to avoid Pattern Day Trader violations. Additionally, we highly recommend using Collective2's autotrading to ensure timely execution and adherence to our algorithmic approach. We emphasize that this strategy should only be implemented with funds designated as risk capital, capital that one is prepared to lose entirely if necessary. Be sure to exercise prudent judgment when setting scaling to align with one's risk tolerance. Our system is entirely algorithmic, devoid of discretionary decision-making.


Suggestion for how to calculate scaling:

1. Find strategy model account value by opening the strategy page.
2. Zoom the chart to the far right, and move mouse over current model account value (e.g., $27,150).
3. Suppose you have $33,000 in your IB account that you want to use in it's entirety.
4. Now divide to get scaling: $33,000 / $27,150 = 1.215, or 121%
5. So you would set your scaling to 121% when setting up autotrading.
6. You may want to choose a lower value to be less aggressive, but we do not recommend a higher value.
7. It is advisable to revisit scaling (yearly is good), and if necessary, update it.

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2025-0.440.6-5.012.75.012.5-0.228.4-4.2-13.887.4
202610.89.6-1.3-4.9-21.14.4-32.0-0.7-36.6

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/21/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$35,000
Age17 months
C2 Rank159
What it tradesStocks
# Trades185
# Profitable89
% Profitable48.1%
Avg trade duration5.3 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown58.7%
drawdown periodMarch 11, 2026 - Aug 03, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)12.8%
Avg win$1,726
Avg loss$1,531

Ratios

W:L ratio1.05
Sharpe Ratio0.41
Sortino Ratio0.66
Calmar Ratio0.44

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life35.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-16.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)12.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)21.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity135.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.3%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss83.5%
Chance of 20% account loss57.5%
Chance of 30% account loss37.5%
Chance of 40% account loss22.5%
Chance of 50% account loss3.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated64.9%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)853
C2 Score159
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)605

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,531
Avg Win$1,726
# Winners89
Sum Trade PL (losers)$146,932
Sum Trade PL (winners)$153,634
Num Months Winners8
# Losers96
% Winners48.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table18

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)319.10
Avg Position Time (hrs)5.32
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago0

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.74
Daily leverage (max)3

Regression

Alpha0.06
Beta0.12
Treynor Index0.56

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-8.03
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.22
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats71.17
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats90.48
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.52
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.32
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.52
SD0.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.98
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.93
df15
t1.13
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.66
Sortino ratio2.13
Upside Potential Ratio3.75
Upside part of mean0.92
Downside part of mean-0.40
Upside SD0.48
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms5
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.52
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.54
Covariance-0.05
r-0.58
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.81
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.87
Mean Square Error0.20
DF error14
t(b)-2.66
p(b)0.79
t(a)2.10
p(a)0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.75
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.87
Mean0.39
SD0.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.76
df15
t0.92
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.96
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.48
Sortino ratio1.46
Upside Potential Ratio3.07
Upside part of mean0.83
Downside part of mean-0.43
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms5
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.39
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.49
Covariance-0.05
r-0.57
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.69
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.69
Mean Square Error0.18
DF error14
t(b)-2.62
p(b)0.79
t(a)1.81
p(a)0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.50
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.69
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
Mean0.30
SD0.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.62
df368
t0.73
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.27
Sortino ratio1.01
Upside Potential Ratio8.07
Upside part of mean2.41
Downside part of mean-2.11
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms136
N negative terms233
N of observations369
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.49
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error367
t(b)0.87
p(b)0.19
t(a)0.67
p(a)0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.09
Treynor index (mean / b)2.31
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
Mean0.19
SD0.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.38
df368
t0.46
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.04
Sortino ratio0.60
Upside Potential Ratio7.59
Upside part of mean2.34
Downside part of mean-2.16
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms136
N negative terms233
N of observations369
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.48
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.23
DF error367
t(b)1.00
p(b)0.16
t(a)0.39
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.96
Treynor index (mean / b)1.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.78
SD0.60
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.29
df130
t-0.91
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.49
Sortino ratio-1.86
Upside Potential Ratio7.05
Upside part of mean2.96
Downside part of mean-3.74
Upside SD0.43
Downside SD0.42
N nonnegative terms49
N negative terms82
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion-0.78
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.60
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.75
Mean Square Error0.37
DF error129
t(b)-0.38
p(b)0.52
t(a)-0.88
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.95
Treynor index (mean / b)5.43
Jensen alpha (a)-0.75
Mean-0.96
SD0.60
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.60
df130
t-1.14
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.18
Sortino ratio-2.21
Upside Potential Ratio6.62
Upside part of mean2.88
Downside part of mean-3.83
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.43
N nonnegative terms49
N negative terms82
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.96
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.60
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.94
Mean Square Error0.36
DF error129
t(b)-0.32
p(b)0.52
t(a)-1.10
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.86
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.74
Treynor index (mean / b)7.95
Jensen alpha (a)-0.94
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations16
Minimum0.79
Quartile 10.98
Median1.04
Quartile 31.09
Maximum1.46
Mean of quarter 10.87
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.24
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.79
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.46
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-22.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.99
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations369
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low28
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high40
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.08
Median0.14
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.14
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.29
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations19
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.54
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.38
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.73
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.89
Extreme Value Index (regression method)5.85
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.38
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.15
Median0.28
Quartile 30.41
Maximum0.54
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.54
Inter Quartile Range0.26
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-133520712
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)145
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.57
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.53
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.82
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.82
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.30
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.25
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.44
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.18
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.05
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.74
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.61
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.12
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-7.91

Trading record

Placed 106 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SOXL long177Aug 19, 2026Aug 19, 2026($793)
SOXL long183Aug 18, 2026Aug 18, 2026($970)
SOXL long162Aug 17, 2026Aug 17, 2026$60
SOXL long169Aug 14, 2026Aug 14, 2026$244
SOXL long168Aug 13, 2026Aug 13, 2026$444
SOXS long539Aug 11, 2026Aug 11, 2026$356
SOXS long522Aug 10, 2026Aug 10, 2026$1,864
SOXL long163Aug 7, 2026Aug 7, 2026($1,433)
SOXL long173Aug 6, 2026Aug 6, 2026$1,464
SOXL long162Aug 5, 2026Aug 5, 2026($483)
SOXS long496Aug 4, 2026Aug 4, 2026($1,161)
SOXL long200Aug 3, 2026Aug 3, 2026$1,912
SOXS long398Jul 30, 2026Jul 30, 2026($2,456)
SOXL long239Jul 29, 2026Jul 29, 2026($2,134)
SOXL long247Jul 28, 2026Jul 28, 2026($2,216)
SOXL long230Jul 27, 2026Jul 27, 2026($4,357)
SOXS long705Jul 23, 2026Jul 23, 2026($456)
SOXL long204Jul 22, 2026Jul 22, 2026$2,489
SOXL long191Jul 21, 2026Jul 21, 2026$540
SOXL long219Jul 17, 2026Jul 17, 2026$2,188
SOXL long168Jul 15, 2026Jul 15, 2026($2,835)
SOXL long175Jul 14, 2026Jul 14, 2026($2,216)
SOXL long198Jul 13, 2026Jul 13, 2026($2,125)
SOXL long181Jul 10, 2026Jul 10, 2026$1,828
SOXS long8148Jul 9, 2026Jul 9, 2026$1,217
SOXL long163Jul 6, 2026Jul 6, 2026($83)
SOXL long135Jul 1, 2026Jul 1, 2026($1,179)
SOXS long10069Jun 30, 2026Jun 30, 2026($4,637)
SOXL long156Jun 29, 2026Jun 29, 2026$2,911

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.