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HackingTheDax

Futures · Futures · Started Aug 2025

Trades Own Strategy BrokerTransmit

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
6.4%
Max Drawdown
24.9%
Trades
141
Win Trades
38.3%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
38.5%
Subscribe No subscription fee

About this strategy

The strategy operates under high-probability directional movement conditions, avoiding overtrading (and commissions) with an average of 16–17 trades per month. After several years of profitable activity on the full size DAX, here is the version for the mini... Trades are opened all in the late morning and closed before the market closes in the evening, avoiding overnight positions. The asset is exclusively the FDXM. It does not rely on any grid or martingale approach; the focus is on identifying the underlying daily trend, with trades lasting a maximum of 10 hours.

Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2025-0.1-0.311.010.03.125.4
2026-2.014.4-22.0-0.1-0.11.5-3.8-0.1-15.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/14/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age12 months
C2 Rank257
What it tradesFutures
# Trades141
# Profitable54
% Profitable38.3%
Avg trade duration6.1 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown24.9%
drawdown periodFeb 06, 2026 - July 21, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)6.4%
Avg win$785
Avg loss$451

Ratios

W:L ratio1.08
Sharpe Ratio0.26
Sortino Ratio0.42
Calmar Ratio0.59

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life18.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-12.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)6.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)12.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity32.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss47.0%
Chance of 20% account loss13.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)469
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)816
C2 Score257
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)615

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?187340
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$451
Avg Win$785
# Winners54
Sum Trade PL (losers)$39,194
Sum Trade PL (winners)$42,373
Num Months Winners5
# Losers87
% Winners38.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table13

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)367.52
Avg Position Time (hrs)6.12
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago31

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.90
Daily leverage (max)5.94

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.08
Treynor Index0.25

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades45.31
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.72
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.29
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.11
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.15
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df10
t0.63
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.67
Sortino ratio1.09
Upside Potential Ratio2.69
Upside part of mean0.37
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms5
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.00
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error9
t(b)-0.33
p(b)0.62
t(a)0.67
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.78
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.74
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.12
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.51
df10
t0.52
p0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.56
Sortino ratio0.87
Upside Potential Ratio2.46
Upside part of mean0.35
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms5
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.00
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error9
t(b)-0.29
p(b)0.61
t(a)0.57
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.75
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.69
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean0.12
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.54
df252
t0.53
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.53
Sortino ratio0.89
Upside Potential Ratio8.76
Upside part of mean1.19
Downside part of mean-1.07
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms72
N negative terms181
N of observations253
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error251
t(b)0.75
p(b)0.23
t(a)0.47
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Treynor index (mean / b)1.48
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.10
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.43
df252
t0.42
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.42
Sortino ratio0.70
Upside Potential Ratio8.55
Upside part of mean1.17
Downside part of mean-1.08
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms72
N negative terms181
N of observations253
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error251
t(b)0.75
p(b)0.23
t(a)0.37
p(a)0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.53
Treynor index (mean / b)1.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.41
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.21
df130
t-1.57
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.58
Sortino ratio-2.97
Upside Potential Ratio4.19
Upside part of mean0.58
Downside part of mean-0.99
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms111
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion-0.41
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.00
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.44
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)1.32
p(b)0.43
t(a)-1.69
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.76
Jensen alpha (a)-0.44
Mean-0.43
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.30
df130
t-1.64
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.48
Sortino ratio-3.05
Upside Potential Ratio4.08
Upside part of mean0.57
Downside part of mean-1.00
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms111
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.43
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.00
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.46
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)1.32
p(b)0.43
t(a)-1.76
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.88
Jensen alpha (a)-0.46
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations11
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-130.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.32
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.16
Number of observations253
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low13
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high25
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.00
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low22
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high17
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.98
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.05
Median0.09
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations11
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.05
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.96
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.22
Quartile 10.22
Median0.22
Quartile 30.22
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-383073984
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)165
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.95
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.95
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.40
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.59
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.98
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.78
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.36
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.33
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.47
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-13.27

Trading record

Placed 287 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
DXM U6long1Jul 23, 2026Jul 23, 2026($584)
DXM U6long1Jul 22, 2026Jul 22, 2026($584)
DXM U6long1Jul 21, 2026Jul 21, 2026$893
DXM U6long1Jul 20, 2026Jul 20, 2026($585)
DXM U6short1Jul 16, 2026Jul 16, 2026($586)
DXM U6long1Jul 15, 2026Jul 15, 2026($48)
DXM U6short1Jul 14, 2026Jul 14, 2026($789)
DXM U6long1Jul 14, 2026Jul 14, 2026($583)
DXM U6long1Jul 13, 2026Jul 13, 2026($613)
DXM U6short1Jul 9, 2026Jul 9, 2026($591)
DXM U6short1Jul 7, 2026Jul 7, 2026$895
DXM U6long1Jul 2, 2026Jul 2, 2026$2,740
DXM U6long1Jul 1, 2026Jul 1, 2026($577)
DXM U6long1Jun 30, 2026Jun 30, 2026$723
DXM U6short1Jun 29, 2026Jun 29, 2026($539)
DXM U6short1Jun 26, 2026Jun 26, 2026$288
DXM U6long1Jun 25, 2026Jun 25, 2026$504
DXM U6short1Jun 24, 2026Jun 24, 2026($581)
DXM U6long1Jun 23, 2026Jun 23, 2026$265
DXM M6short1Jun 19, 2026Jun 21, 2026($146)
DXM M6long1Jun 17, 2026Jun 17, 2026($376)
DXM M6short1Jun 10, 2026Jun 10, 2026$892
DXM M6long1Jun 9, 2026Jun 9, 2026($592)
DXM M6long1Mar 31, 2026Mar 31, 2026($817)
DXM M6long1Mar 31, 2026Mar 31, 2026($600)
DXM M6short1Mar 27, 2026Mar 27, 2026($602)
DXM M6short1Mar 25, 2026Mar 25, 2026($650)
DXM M6long1Mar 25, 2026Mar 25, 2026($653)
DXS H6long1Mar 18, 2026Mar 18, 2026($12)
DXS H6long3Mar 18, 2026Mar 18, 2026($332)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.