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The US Economy

Futures · Started Sep 2025

hypothetical · Cumul. Return
-14.0%
Max Drawdown
51.0%
Trades
59
Win Trades
84.7%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
50.0%

About this strategy

Based on principles of momentum of the Gold and Silver strategy, I follow bullish sentiment of the US indices. This strategy trades Nasdaq, S&P500, and Dow Jones. Lets profit together!

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20253.811.35.011.235.0
202610.0-14.3-17.2-1.9-2.1-18.2-0.44.6-36.2

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/26/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age11 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades59
# Profitable50
% Profitable84.7%
Avg trade duration5.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown51.0%
drawdown periodJan 22, 2026 - July 29, 2026
Cumul. Return-14.0%
Avg win$1,887
Avg loss$11,848

Ratios

W:L ratio0.89
Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Sortino Ratio-0.29
Calmar Ratio-0.27

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.27
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life15.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-31.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-15.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-13.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity90.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss75.5%
Chance of 30% account loss38.5%
Chance of 40% account loss11.5%
Chance of 50% account loss4.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)587
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$11,848
Avg Win$1,887
# Winners50
Sum Trade PL (losers)$106,632
Sum Trade PL (winners)$94,370
Num Months Winners6
# Losers9
% Winners84.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table12

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7510.53
Avg Position Time (hrs)125.18
Avg Trade Length5.20
Last Trade Ago1

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.07
Daily leverage (max)2.40

Regression

Alpha-0.06
Beta0.76
Treynor Index-0.04

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.25
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.14
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-23.64
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-3.99
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.54
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.36
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.14
SD0.42
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.31
df9
t-0.31
p0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.84
Sortino ratio-0.47
Upside Potential Ratio1.72
Upside part of mean0.53
Downside part of mean-0.67
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms6
N of observations10
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion-0.14
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.42
Covariance0.02
r0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.29
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error8
t(b)1.22
p(b)0.13
t(a)-0.63
p(a)0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.78
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.29
Mean-0.23
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.49
df9
t-0.48
p0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.64
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.67
Sortino ratio-0.69
Upside Potential Ratio1.49
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.72
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.33
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms6
N of observations10
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion-0.23
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance0.03
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.34
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.38
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error8
t(b)1.37
p(b)0.10
t(a)-0.83
p(a)0.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.68
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.17
Jensen alpha (a)-0.38
VaR(95%)0.20
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.24
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
Mean-0.10
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.25
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.25
df227
t-0.23
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.86
Sortino ratio-0.32
Upside Potential Ratio5.90
Upside part of mean1.78
Downside part of mean-1.88
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms120
N negative terms108
N of observations228
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion-0.10
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.01
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.80
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.22
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error226
t(b)4.34
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.57
p(a)0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.23
Mean-0.17
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.43
df227
t-0.41
p0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.67
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.67
Sortino ratio-0.54
Upside Potential Ratio5.49
Upside part of mean1.75
Downside part of mean-1.93
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.32
N nonnegative terms120
N negative terms108
N of observations228
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-0.17
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.01
r0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.81
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.30
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error226
t(b)4.29
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.73
p(a)0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.51
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.21
Jensen alpha (a)-0.30
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.62
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.63
df130
t-1.87
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.16
Sortino ratio-3.06
Upside Potential Ratio4.96
Upside part of mean1.00
Downside part of mean-1.61
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms71
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion-0.62
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.71
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.79
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error129
t(b)5.36
p(b)0.24
t(a)-2.63
p(a)0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.87
Jensen alpha (a)-0.79
Mean-0.64
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.72
df130
t-1.94
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.07
Sortino ratio-3.14
Upside Potential Ratio4.83
Upside part of mean0.99
Downside part of mean-1.63
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms71
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion-0.64
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.01
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.72
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.81
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error129
t(b)5.34
p(b)0.24
t(a)-2.68
p(a)0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.90
Jensen alpha (a)-0.81
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations10
Minimum0.82
Quartile 10.88
Median0.98
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.84
Mean of quarter 20.97
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.13
Inter Quartile Range0.19
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.81
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations228
Minimum0.82
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low14
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.41
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.44
Quartile 10.44
Median0.44
Quartile 30.44
Maximum0.44
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.50
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.50
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.81
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.29
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.57
Extreme Value Index (regression method)5.45
VaR(95%) (regression method)2.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.20
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.36
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-387917216
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)188
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.41
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.76
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.27
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.59
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.70
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.53
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.46
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.27
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.27
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-14.43

Trading record

Placed 91 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ U6long1Jul 10, 2026Aug 13, 2026$254
MES U6long1Jul 6, 2026Jul 9, 2026$28
MNQ U6long1Jul 5, 2026Jul 6, 2026$90
QSIL N6long1May 29, 2026Jul 2, 2026($15,478)
QSIL N6long1May 27, 2026May 28, 2026$1,457
QMGC M6long2Apr 17, 2026May 27, 2026($8,799)
QMGC M6long2Apr 14, 2026Apr 17, 2026$557
QMGC M6long2Apr 10, 2026Apr 14, 2026$1,513
QMGC M6long2Apr 1, 2026Apr 9, 2026$271
QSIL K6long1Mar 31, 2026Apr 1, 2026$1,652
QMGC M6long1Mar 20, 2026Mar 31, 2026$500
QMGC J6long3Mar 2, 2026Mar 20, 2026($22,660)
QMGC J6long3Feb 27, 2026Mar 2, 2026$1,545
QMGC J6long3Feb 25, 2026Feb 27, 2026$746
QMGC J7long1Feb 24, 2026Feb 25, 2026$522
QMGC J6long3Feb 11, 2026Feb 23, 2026$3,073
QMGC J6long3Feb 9, 2026Feb 11, 2026$852
QMGC J6long3Feb 6, 2026Feb 9, 2026$2,926
QI K6long1Feb 4, 2026Feb 5, 2026($32,813)
QMGC J6long3Feb 3, 2026Feb 4, 2026$1,233
QMGC J6long1Feb 3, 2026Feb 3, 2026($3)
QMGC J6long3Jan 30, 2026Feb 3, 2026$1,484
QMGC J6long3Jan 28, 2026Jan 29, 2026($14)
QMGC J6long2Jan 27, 2026Jan 28, 2026$4,266
QI H6long1Jan 26, 2026Jan 27, 2026($20,206)
QMGC J6long1Jan 23, 2026Jan 26, 2026$1,194
QI H6long1Jan 19, 2026Jan 22, 2026$3,041
QMGC G6long3Jan 14, 2026Jan 19, 2026$1,191
QMGC G6long3Jan 12, 2026Jan 14, 2026$611
QMGC G6long3Jan 9, 2026Jan 12, 2026$3,660

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.