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Iberia Capital Strategy

Futures · Futures · Started Apr 2026

hypothetical · Cumul. Return
16.0%
Max Drawdown
5.5%
Trades
54
Win Trades
51.9%
Profit Factor
2.10
Win Months
80.0%
Subscribe Full access for $75/month

About this strategy

​Iberia Capital Strategy is a 100% systematic trading model developed for the Nasdaq 100 (NQ/MNQ). The system is built on the principle of institutional price rebalancing and liquidity displacement, identifying high-probability windows where market participants must reposition.
​Methodology & Execution:
The strategy utilizes a dual-engine approach to exploit market inefficiencies:
​Intraday Liquidity Engine: Captures expansion moves during specific institutional time windows (0 to 2 MNQ).
​Weekly Bias Model: Targets major structural objectives (1 MNQ). Due to the high Risk/Reward nature of these setups, positions may be held for multiple sessions (2-4 days) to allow the full mathematical edge to materialize.
​Professional Risk Protocol:
​Fixed Position Sizing: Baseline allocation is 2 MNQ per $25,000 of model equity. In rare instances where both independent engines overlap, total combined exposure has a strict hard cap of 3 MNQ contracts per $25,000.
​Time Management: While we maintain overnight exposure from Monday to Thursday to capture swing moves, we enforce a strict "No-Weekend-Hold" policy. All positions are flattened before Friday close to eliminate gap risks.
​Protection: Mandatory hard stops on every entry. No Martingale, no grid-trading, and no discretionary overrides.
​Capital Scalability: While optimized for $25,000 accounts, the model remains robust for accounts starting at $5,000 for investors seeking higher growth profiles.
​Subscriber Expectations:
This is a low-frequency, high-conviction system. We prioritize quality over quantity; if proprietary structural filters are not met, the strategy will remain in cash. This discipline ensures we only risk capital when mathematical expectancy is at its peak. Ideal for investors seeking professional-grade execution and a focus on long-term capital preservation.

Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20260.6-1.69.21.55.616.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/15/2026
Suggested Minimum Capital$30,000
Age131 days
C2 RankTop 8.2%
What it tradesFutures
# Trades54
# Profitable28
% Profitable51.9%
Avg trade duration3.6 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown5.5%
drawdown periodMay 28, 2026 - June 08, 2026
Cumul. Return16.0%
Avg win$318
Avg loss$165

Ratios

W:L ratio2.08
Sharpe Ratio2.75
Sortino Ratio5.27
Calmar Ratio14.72

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.09
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life9.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)7.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)49.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)59.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated100.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)918
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)917
C2 Score918
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)882

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$164
Avg Win$318
# Winners28
Sum Trade PL (losers)$4,277
Sum Trade PL (winners)$8,896
Num Months Winners4
# Losers26
% Winners51.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table5

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)217.93
Avg Position Time (hrs)3.63
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago3

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.41
Daily leverage (max)7.15

Regression

Alpha0.12
Beta-0.10
Treynor Index-1.18

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.70
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.86
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.45
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.14
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.37

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.42
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)8.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)5.97
df3
t4.76
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio15.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation11.82
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0.42
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms0
N of observations4
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance0.00
r0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.33
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error2
t(b)0.82
p(b)0.25
t(a)2.23
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.96
Treynor index (mean / b)1.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.33
Mean0.41
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)8.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)6.03
df3
t4.81
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio15.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation11.93
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0.41
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms0
N of observations4
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.41
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance0.00
r0.51
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error2
t(b)0.84
p(b)0.25
t(a)2.25
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.93
Treynor index (mean / b)1.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
VaR(95%)-0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR-0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0.46
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.77
df92
t2.26
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio7.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation7.10
Sortino ratio7.54
Upside Potential Ratio12.98
Upside part of mean0.79
Downside part of mean-0.33
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms52
N of observations93
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance-0.00
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.48
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error91
t(b)-1.30
p(b)0.90
t(a)2.40
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.89
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.60
Jensen alpha (a)0.49
Mean0.45
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.76
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.73
df92
t2.24
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio7.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.40
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation7.06
Sortino ratio7.36
Upside Potential Ratio12.79
Upside part of mean0.78
Downside part of mean-0.33
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms52
N of observations93
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.45
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance-0.00
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.48
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error91
t(b)-1.29
p(b)0.90
t(a)2.37
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.88
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.58
Jensen alpha (a)0.48
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum1.02
Quartile 11.03
Median1.04
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 11.02
Mean of quarter 21.04
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations93
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.53
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.04
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-396462240
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)11
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.47
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.55
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.52
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.61
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)14.72
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs19.66
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal45.60

Trading record

Placed 10 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ U6short1Aug 21, 2026Aug 21, 2026$107
MNQ U6short1Aug 19, 2026Aug 19, 2026$333
MNQ U6short1Aug 19, 2026Aug 19, 2026($67)
MNQ U6short1Aug 17, 2026Aug 17, 2026$155
MNQ U6short1Aug 14, 2026Aug 14, 2026$151
MNQ U6short1Aug 13, 2026Aug 13, 2026($108)
MNQ U6short1Aug 11, 2026Aug 11, 2026$29
MNQ U6short1Aug 10, 2026Aug 10, 2026$198
MNQ U6short1Aug 10, 2026Aug 10, 2026($123)
MNQ U6long1Aug 6, 2026Aug 6, 2026$312
MNQ U6short1Aug 5, 2026Aug 5, 2026$194
MNQ U6long1Aug 3, 2026Aug 3, 2026$215
MNQ U6short1Aug 3, 2026Aug 3, 2026$243
MNQ U6short1Jul 29, 2026Jul 29, 2026($245)
MNQ U6short2Jul 27, 2026Jul 27, 2026$559
MNQ U6short1Jul 27, 2026Jul 27, 2026($119)
MNQ U6long1Jul 22, 2026Jul 22, 2026$251
MNQ U6short1Jul 12, 2026Jul 12, 2026$75
MNQ U6short3Jun 30, 2026Jun 30, 2026($667)
MNQ U6short2Jun 29, 2026Jun 29, 2026$223
MNQ M6short3Jun 16, 2026Jun 16, 2026$1,326
MNQ M6long2Jun 7, 2026Jun 8, 2026$1,144
MNQ M6short2Jun 3, 2026Jun 3, 2026$228
MNQ M6short2Jun 3, 2026Jun 3, 2026($85)
MNQ M6short1Jun 1, 2026Jun 1, 2026($8)
MNQ M6short1Jun 1, 2026Jun 1, 2026$234
MNQ M6short2May 29, 2026May 29, 2026($257)
MNQ M6short3May 27, 2026May 29, 2026($469)
MNQ M6short1May 26, 2026May 26, 2026($80)
MNQ M6short2May 26, 2026May 26, 2026($203)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.