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AELong

Equity · Stocks · Started May 2023

Trades Own Strategy BrokerTransmit

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
25.8%
Max Drawdown
16.2%
Trades
342
Win Trades
51.5%
Profit Factor
3.10
Win Months
65.0%
Subscribe Full access for $38/month

About this strategy

An investment in stocks or funds, primarily from the S&P 500 index, the 'AE Long' investment strategy combines well-known stock management techniques and integrates them into one proven successful method. The strength of this strategy lies in its incorporation of micro and macroeconomic parameters for individual stocks, as well as market forecasts and technical and quantitative models, such as Momentum. The method is inspired by the Dow Theory.
Stock Selection Process:
• Identifying stocks from analytical database.
• High market capitalization and high trading volume on stocks give further validating to the selection.
• Utilizing quantitative and technical models to aid in selecting the appropriate stocks and determining the optimal investment timing.
Portfolio management and strategy:
• Usually the amount of shares is known in advance and with equal weight
• Establishing a trading plan for each stock
• Incorporating psychological factors of the market and the individual trading.
• Implementing dynamic portfolio management. Each of the shares can be held for very short to long periods.

Non-hedged Equity

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20231.06.14.4-3.8-4.9-4.28.17.113.4
2024-3.43.53.6-3.17.4-0.70.9-0.21.41.79.2-3.716.8
20254.4-0.5-3.52.011.85.10.54.46.34.9-3.01.238.0
2026-2.00.4-4.711.311.1-2.93.30.516.7

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/11/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age40 months
C2 RankTop 1.5%
What it tradesStocks
# Trades342
# Profitable176
% Profitable51.5%
Avg trade duration64.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown16.2%
drawdown periodFeb 10, 2025 - April 09, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)25.8%
Avg win$486
Avg loss$173

Ratios

W:L ratio3.09
Sharpe Ratio1.38
Sortino Ratio2.11
Calmar Ratio2.02

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.64
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life85.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)28.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)25.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)27.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity4.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss19.5%
Chance of 20% account loss1.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)868
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)969
C2 Score985
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)898

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?187345
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$173
Avg Win$486
# Winners176
Sum Trade PL (losers)$28,676
Sum Trade PL (winners)$85,570
Num Months Winners26
# Losers166
% Winners51.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct2990

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table40

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)93053.88
Avg Position Time (hrs)1550.90
Avg Trade Length64.60
Last Trade Ago6

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.93
Daily leverage (max)1.17

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.58
Treynor Index0.10

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.40
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.99
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.44
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.38
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.72

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.25
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.41
df37
t2.56
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.56
Sortino ratio2.93
Upside Potential Ratio4.49
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms13
N of observations38
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.03
r0.85
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.87
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error36
t(b)9.89
p(b)0
t(a)1.57
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.23
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.34
df37
t2.43
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.48
Sortino ratio2.63
Upside Potential Ratio4.19
Upside part of mean0.37
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms13
N of observations38
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.23
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.02
r0.86
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error36
t(b)9.98
p(b)0
t(a)1.62
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.27
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.23
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.72
df836
t3.08
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.82
Sortino ratio2.62
Upside Potential Ratio10.38
Upside part of mean0.90
Downside part of mean-0.67
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms469
N negative terms368
N of observations837
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.23
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.01
r0.64
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error835
t(b)23.98
p(b)0
t(a)2.25
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
Mean0.22
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.66
df836
t2.96
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.75
Sortino ratio2.50
Upside Potential Ratio10.21
Upside part of mean0.90
Downside part of mean-0.68
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms469
N negative terms368
N of observations837
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.01
r0.64
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error835
t(b)24.26
p(b)0
t(a)2.20
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.35
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.29
df130
t1.63
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.08
Sortino ratio4.12
Upside Potential Ratio12.96
Upside part of mean1.09
Downside part of mean-0.74
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms71
N negative terms60
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.35
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.66
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.70
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)9.88
p(b)0.11
t(a)1.34
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.53
Treynor index (mean / b)0.50
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
Mean0.33
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.23
df130
t1.58
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.01
Sortino ratio3.96
Upside Potential Ratio12.79
Upside part of mean1.08
Downside part of mean-0.75
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms71
N negative terms60
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.66
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.70
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)9.93
p(b)0.11
t(a)1.32
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.53
Treynor index (mean / b)0.48
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations38
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.99
Median1.03
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.80
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.21
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations837
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low14
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.04
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.00
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.29
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.05
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations51
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-142.46
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-3.42
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-404303200
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)58
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.40
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.30
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.45
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.51
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.79
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.28
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.01
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.37
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal17.64
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.40
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.44
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.85
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs7.50
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal24.80

Trading record

Placed 697 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AVGO long12Jan 6, 2026Aug 19, 2026$220
AMZN long14Jun 16, 2026Aug 12, 2026$296
ANET long25Jul 15, 2026Aug 7, 2026$406
AZN long20May 28, 2026Jul 20, 2026($385)
ANET long28Jun 9, 2026Jul 15, 2026$490
PWRD long34May 11, 2026Jul 2, 2026$51
FSLR long21Apr 16, 2026Jun 25, 2026$1,087
NVDA long18Nov 19, 2025Jun 24, 2026$209
UBS long94Feb 12, 2026Jun 24, 2026$686
ORCL long25Mar 6, 2026Jun 23, 2026$276
GS long5Mar 23, 2026Jun 18, 2026$1,305
CRM long15Feb 13, 2026Jun 18, 2026($593)
DELL long32Feb 4, 2026Jun 10, 2026$6,943
TMO long8Mar 25, 2026Jun 2, 2026($72)
IBKR long58Mar 3, 2026May 28, 2026$523
AXP long10Apr 8, 2026May 28, 2026($130)
UPS long40Mar 30, 2026May 12, 2026$76
NFLX long44Feb 27, 2026May 8, 2026($223)
DAL long140Mar 13, 2026Apr 16, 2026$836
STRL long8Mar 27, 2026Apr 7, 2026($359)
MSI long11Jan 13, 2026Mar 27, 2026$615
CHKP long24Mar 6, 2026Mar 24, 2026($497)
AEP long37Jan 21, 2026Mar 20, 2026$240
NOW long36Mar 3, 2026Mar 12, 2026$52
GE long13Jan 30, 2026Mar 6, 2026$147
AIG long55Nov 18, 2025Mar 3, 2026$46
PFE long168Jan 20, 2026Mar 3, 2026$163
BABA long30Dec 16, 2025Feb 26, 2026($47)
NFLX long52Jan 27, 2026Feb 12, 2026($337)
SONY long170Jan 6, 2026Jan 30, 2026($706)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.