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The Dragonʼs Prodigy

Stocks · Started Jun 2025

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
56.8%
Max Drawdown
11.2%
Trades
219
Win Trades
48.9%
Profit Factor
2.40
Win Months
66.7%
Subscribe Full access for $169/month

About this strategy

The system is a quantitative model engineered to capture structural trend shifts and volatility expansions in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. The strategy is only a fit for sophisticated portfolios capable of incorporating leveraged instruments. While the system identifies high-relative-strength individual common stocks, options, and ETFs, its core alpha is generated through the strategic use of Micro-Futures contracts (MES/MNQ). These instruments are utilized to achieve precise market exposure and capital efficiency. Investors must be prepared for the inclusion of micro-futures and leveraged ETFs as a fundamental component of the strategy’s architecture. My approach is directionally flexible, employing both long and short positions to navigate various market regimes. Every position is governed by a pre-defined dollar-risk amount. I prioritize consistency over extravagance, focusing on protecting the equity curve during market regimes that provide this system with no opportunity. Therefore, in addition to comfort with leverage, investors also need to be comfortable with no positions for extended amounts of time.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2025-1.54.69.12.45.410.0-0.432.9
2026-0.51.2-2.027.62.80.50.6-2.227.9

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/27/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$45,000
Age14 months
C2 RankTop 2.2%
What it tradesStocks
# Trades219
# Profitable107
% Profitable48.9%
Avg trade duration8.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown11.2%
drawdown periodAug 15, 2025 - Sept 03, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)56.8%
Avg win$331
Avg loss$131

Ratios

W:L ratio2.41
Sharpe Ratio1.60
Sortino Ratio4.27
Calmar Ratio10.23

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.29
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life24.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)45.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)56.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.6%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)67.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity3.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.2%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.1%
Percent Trades Options0.1%
Short Options - Percent Covered25.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.8%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss21.0%
Chance of 20% account loss1.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)610
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)967
C2 Score978
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)893

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$131
Avg Win$331
# Winners107
Sum Trade PL (losers)$14,720
Sum Trade PL (winners)$35,396
Num Months Winners10
# Losers112
% Winners48.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct-9

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table15

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)12086.27
Avg Position Time (hrs)201.44
Avg Trade Length8.40
Last Trade Ago5

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.70
Daily leverage (max)5.31

Regression

Alpha0.10
Beta0.58
Treynor Index0.22

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.67
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.10
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.56
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.32
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.60

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.61
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.96
df12
t3.29
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.18
Sortino ratio745.20
Upside Potential Ratio746.16
Upside part of mean0.61
Downside part of mean-0.00
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms1
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.61
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.62
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.38
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error11
t(b)2.64
p(b)0.01
t(a)2.23
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.76
Treynor index (mean / b)0.60
Jensen alpha (a)0.38
Mean0.58
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.08
df12
t3.42
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.33
Sortino ratio708.79
Upside Potential Ratio709.75
Upside part of mean0.58
Downside part of mean-0.00
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms1
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.58
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.61
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.92
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.38
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error11
t(b)2.52
p(b)0.01
t(a)2.39
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.73
Treynor index (mean / b)0.62
Jensen alpha (a)0.38
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.56
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.39
df294
t2.54
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.24
Sortino ratio6.89
Upside Potential Ratio13.66
Upside part of mean1.11
Downside part of mean-0.55
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms157
N negative terms138
N of observations295
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.56
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.45
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error293
t(b)5.52
p(b)0
t(a)2.11
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.86
Treynor index (mean / b)0.98
Jensen alpha (a)0.45
Mean0.53
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.39
df294
t2.54
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.25
Sortino ratio6.50
Upside Potential Ratio13.26
Upside part of mean1.09
Downside part of mean-0.56
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms157
N negative terms138
N of observations295
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.53
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.01
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.55
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.43
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error293
t(b)5.53
p(b)0
t(a)2.14
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.83
Treynor index (mean / b)0.98
Jensen alpha (a)0.43
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.57
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.92
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.91
df130
t1.36
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.69
Sortino ratio6.67
Upside Potential Ratio12.83
Upside part of mean1.09
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms73
N negative terms58
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.57
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.01
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.68
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.41
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error129
t(b)3.93
p(b)0.30
t(a)1.02
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.83
Jensen alpha (a)0.41
Mean0.53
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.89
df130
t1.35
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.67
Sortino ratio6.13
Upside Potential Ratio12.26
Upside part of mean1.06
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms73
N negative terms58
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.53
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.01
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.64
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.38
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error129
t(b)3.94
p(b)0.30
t(a)1.03
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.12
Treynor index (mean / b)0.82
Jensen alpha (a)0.38
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations13
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.02
Median1.04
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 11.01
Mean of quarter 21.03
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.13
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations295
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low17
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high26
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations30
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-369146816
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)19
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.80
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.78
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)921.51
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.29
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.73
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.71
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)10.23
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs19.46
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal27.17
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.61
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.70
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)10.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs18.81
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal21.24

Trading record

Placed 25 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ U6long1Aug 17, 2026Aug 19, 2026($1,033)
OVV long35Aug 10, 2026Aug 14, 2026($18)
FSLY long65Aug 10, 2026Aug 11, 2026$77
MNQ U6long1Jul 20, 2026Jul 21, 2026$695
NESR long80Jul 9, 2026Jul 15, 2026$80
INNV long175Jul 14, 2026Jul 15, 2026($15)
AFRM long28Jul 14, 2026Jul 15, 2026($72)
TWIN long105Jul 9, 2026Jul 14, 2026($136)
PRTH long275Jul 9, 2026Jul 10, 2026($3)
TGTX long45Jul 6, 2026Jul 10, 2026$96
VCYT long40Jul 9, 2026Jul 10, 2026($98)
ESE long7Jul 6, 2026Jul 7, 2026($83)
RBRK long30Jun 29, 2026Jun 30, 2026$118
NEWT long135Jun 24, 2026Jun 30, 2026$105
LQDT long60Jun 18, 2026Jun 30, 2026$86
AUPH long100Jun 19, 2026Jun 29, 2026$54
OKTA long19Jun 18, 2026Jun 29, 2026$179
MITK long140Jun 11, 2026Jun 24, 2026$122
QCLN long36Jun 18, 2026Jun 24, 2026($121)
CPAY long6Jun 9, 2026Jun 17, 2026$1
TRS long50Jun 9, 2026Jun 17, 2026$86
CDNS long6Jun 15, 2026Jun 17, 2026($4)
INGM long79Jun 15, 2026Jun 17, 2026($89)
QRVO long23Jun 15, 2026Jun 17, 2026($102)
ARGX long2Jun 11, 2026Jun 15, 2026($44)
NBIX long14Jun 9, 2026Jun 15, 2026($97)
DAVE long8Jun 8, 2026Jun 12, 2026($160)
MNQ M6short1Jun 8, 2026Jun 9, 2026$816
SEZL long25Jun 4, 2026Jun 8, 2026($215)
ECG long15Jun 4, 2026Jun 8, 2026($107)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.