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ARK Futures

Futures · Futures · Started Jan 2025

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-5.5%
Max Drawdown
87.5%
Trades
249
Win Trades
90.0%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
47.4%
Subscribe Full access for $20/month

About this strategy

1) About My Trading System: Experience, Evolution, and Philosophy

I've been involved in online trading since 2006, developing a manual trading system based on advanced mathematical algorithms. My system generates precise entry and exit signals, incorporating analysis of intraday bulletins from currency futures of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group), including British Pound, Euro FX, Australian Dollar, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and Canadian Dollar futures. I trade G10 CME Group currency futures, both trending and reversal patterns, with every trade protected by a stop loss. This system is not a martingale strategy. My long-term goal is to open my own hedge fund.

2) A Journey of Continuous Improvement

My system has undergone extensive refinement over the years. I've focused significantly on addressing past mistakes, drawing insights from psychology to enhance my decision-making processes. This meticulous work has led to the identification and correction of bugs, resulting in a more reliable and stable system. I've also optimized my algorithms, retaining only the most effective ones, and implemented robust risk management strategies. I have complete confidence in my system.

I strive to become a disciplined trader. I set strict rules for the maximum leverage, average leverage level, and maximum drawdown each month, publishing these risk management goals at least once a month. This is my commitment to all my subscribers, ensuring you can invest with peace of mind.

3) Understanding Past Performance and Lessons Learned

I want to be transparent about my trading history. This isn't my first venture here; I've had periods of significant success, including from February 2018 to July 2019, when I managed approximately $7 million USD with around 100 paid subscribers. In 2018, my system showed an impressive 88% profit. However, I observed a pattern: when profits were more moderate (10-25% per year) and drawdowns low, clients tended to leave. In 2019, despite a 16% profit, 95% of my clients departed.

I learned that strategies promising high profits often lead to larger drawdowns, creating a "vicious circle." This realization, combined with client preferences for aggressive strategies, unfortunately led me to take on more risk with my system, resulting in some setbacks.

For example, from November 2021 to October 2022, my ARK system initially saw excellent results and client growth, with over 250% profit in six months and $15 million USD under management with 100+ subscribers. However, when I shifted to a more conservative (less risky) approach, the subscriber count dropped significantly. When I resumed more aggressive trading, it led to a substantial drawdown from a highly leveraged USD/JPY short position. While the market idea was correct (selling at 145-147-150 with targets at 135-133-131), poor execution was entirely my fault, and I take full responsibility.

More recently, in 2024, my M8888 system achieved an excellent 420% profit with a 42% maximum drawdown. However, this aggressive approach predictably led to a large drawdown, with current profits at 230% and a 70% drawdown. I understand that such results are generally unattractive. I now prioritize finding an adequate balance between risk and profit.

You can review the archives of my past systems from 2018-2024 on my website.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Important Recommendations for Copying My System

Every month, I establish and adhere to strict risk parameters. For your peace of mind and based on your risk preferences, I strongly recommend setting your risk limit to no more than 10-15-20% after subscribing to the system.

Please keep the following in mind when considering or copying my system, "ARK Futures":

1) Do not idealize results: Consistent monthly gains over long periods are unrealistic. Trading is not a bank deposit. Expect periods of drawdown or stagnation, as market cycles are normal.

2) Diversify your investments: Never put all your capital into a single strategy.

3)Monitor regularly: Continuously monitor the results, ideally several times a week. This will help you stay calm and informed.

4) Profitability is non-linear: Past performance does not guarantee future results.

5) Manage your emotions: There's a stop loss and risk limit for every trade. Excessive anxiety about market movements or perceived errors will only hinder your results. I do not offer psychological counseling.

6) Periods of inactivity are normal: It's common to have several trading sessions or weeks with no activity. Constant market presence doesn't equate to better profits; sometimes, a few strong trading sessions can define an entire month's performance. Patience and waiting for clear signals are key.

7) Understand the risks: There's a possibility of losing some or all of your investment. Only invest capital you can afford to lose. I advise seeking independent financial advice if you have any doubts about the risks associated with foreign exchange trading.

Currencies

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202534.711.613.014.45.31.114.06.0-5.2-53.9-39.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/10/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$34,425
Age20 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades249
# Profitable224
% Profitable90.0%
Avg trade duration1.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown87.5%
drawdown periodSept 17, 2025 - Nov 26, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)-5.5%
Avg win$328
Avg loss$2,782

Ratios

W:L ratio1.06
Sharpe Ratio0.23
Sortino Ratio0.32
Calmar Ratio0.13

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life31.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-40.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-5.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity188.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss81.0%
Chance of 20% account loss58.0%
Chance of 30% account loss39.0%
Chance of 40% account loss16.5%
Chance of 50% account loss6.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)659
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)295

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,782
Avg Win$328
# Winners224
Sum Trade PL (losers)$69,555
Sum Trade PL (winners)$73,522
Num Months Winners9
# Losers25
% Winners90.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table20

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2519.12
Avg Position Time (hrs)41.99
Avg Trade Length1.70
Last Trade Ago246

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)6.51
Daily leverage (max)38.44

Regression

Alpha0.06
Beta0.05
Treynor Index1.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.12
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.07
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades103.26
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats69.80
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.44
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.43
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.24
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.43
SD0.79
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.50
df11
t0.54
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.47
Sortino ratio0.77
Upside Potential Ratio2.08
Upside part of mean1.16
Downside part of mean-0.73
Upside SD0.53
Downside SD0.56
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms4
N of observations12
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.43
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.79
Covariance-0.01
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.48
Mean Square Error0.69
DF error10
t(b)-0.13
p(b)0.55
t(a)0.52
p(a)0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.50
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.48
Mean0.07
SD0.94
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.07
df11
t0.08
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.03
Sortino ratio0.09
Upside Potential Ratio1.35
Upside part of mean1.04
Downside part of mean-0.97
Upside SD0.46
Downside SD0.77
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms4
N of observations12
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.94
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.96
DF error10
t(b)-0.06
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.09
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.47
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.70
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.35
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.42
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.24
Mean0.39
SD0.80
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.49
df264
t0.49
p0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.44
Sortino ratio0.70
Upside Potential Ratio5.94
Upside part of mean3.33
Downside part of mean-2.94
Upside SD0.57
Downside SD0.56
N nonnegative terms151
N negative terms114
N of observations265
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.39
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.80
Covariance-0.01
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.44
Mean Square Error0.64
DF error263
t(b)-0.81
p(b)0.79
t(a)0.56
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.03
Jensen alpha (a)0.44
Mean0.07
SD0.81
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.09
df264
t0.09
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.86
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.04
Sortino ratio0.12
Upside Potential Ratio5.20
Upside part of mean3.19
Downside part of mean-3.12
Upside SD0.52
Downside SD0.61
N nonnegative terms151
N negative terms114
N of observations265
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.81
Covariance-0.01
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.65
DF error263
t(b)-0.75
p(b)0.77
t(a)0.14
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.70
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean-0.92
SD1.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.83
df130
t-0.59
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.94
Sortino ratio-1.17
Upside Potential Ratio5.37
Upside part of mean4.22
Downside part of mean-5.14
Upside SD0.76
Downside SD0.79
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms73
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion-0.92
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion1.09
Covariance-0.01
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.50
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.72
Mean Square Error1.20
DF error129
t(b)-0.88
p(b)0.55
t(a)-0.46
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.38
Treynor index (mean / b)1.82
Jensen alpha (a)-0.72
Mean-1.52
SD1.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.37
df130
t-0.97
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.41
Sortino ratio-1.76
Upside Potential Ratio4.61
Upside part of mean3.97
Downside part of mean-5.49
Upside SD0.69
Downside SD0.86
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms73
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion-1.52
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion1.10
Covariance-0.01
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.44
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.35
Mean Square Error1.22
DF error129
t(b)-0.75
p(b)0.54
t(a)-0.86
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.60
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.77
Treynor index (mean / b)3.45
Jensen alpha (a)-1.35
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations12
Minimum0.48
Quartile 10.99
Median1.06
Quartile 31.14
Maximum1.43
Mean of quarter 10.76
Mean of quarter 21.03
Mean of quarter 31.10
Mean of quarter 41.26
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.48
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.43
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-8.74
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.53
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.98
Number of observations265
Minimum0.72
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.28
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low27
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high24
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.99
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)3.82
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.55
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations131
Minimum0.72
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.28
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low21
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high15
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.17
Median0.31
Quartile 30.46
Maximum0.61
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.61
Inter Quartile Range0.29
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations26
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.78
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.44
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.70
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.78
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.41
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.78
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-390600992
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)70
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.17
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.17
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.25
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.13
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.67
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.07
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.77
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.99
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.89
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.70

Trading record

Placed 1337 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
JY Z5long99Sep 17, 2025Dec 15, 2025($47,805)
BP Z5long11Oct 21, 2025Dec 15, 2025($2,412)
JE Z5short1Oct 16, 2025Oct 17, 2025$5
BP Z5long3Oct 15, 2025Oct 15, 2025$572
JE Z5long1Oct 15, 2025Oct 15, 2025$42
BP Z5long2Oct 14, 2025Oct 15, 2025$222
BP Z5long26Sep 17, 2025Oct 9, 2025($9,865)
JY Z5long1Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$405
BP Z5long3Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$223
JY Z5long2Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$222
JY Z5long2Sep 16, 2025Sep 16, 2025$159
JY Z5long4Sep 9, 2025Sep 16, 2025$381
JY U5long5Sep 10, 2025Sep 11, 2025$760
JY U5long2Sep 9, 2025Sep 10, 2025$209
JY U5long1Sep 9, 2025Sep 9, 2025$180
JY Z5long1Sep 9, 2025Sep 9, 2025$230
JY U5long2Sep 9, 2025Sep 9, 2025$284
JY U5long16Aug 29, 2025Sep 9, 2025$1,360
BP U5long2Sep 4, 2025Sep 4, 2025$110
BP U5long2Sep 4, 2025Sep 4, 2025$133
BP U5long2Sep 3, 2025Sep 4, 2025$97
BP U5long1Aug 29, 2025Aug 29, 2025$114
JY U5long42Aug 7, 2025Aug 28, 2025$3,229
BP U5long1Aug 27, 2025Aug 27, 2025$155
BP U5long3Aug 26, 2025Aug 27, 2025$209
BP U5long1Aug 26, 2025Aug 26, 2025$82
BP U5long3Aug 25, 2025Aug 26, 2025$148
BP U5short1Aug 4, 2025Aug 4, 2025$60
BP U5short2Aug 4, 2025Aug 4, 2025$224
BP U5long2Aug 4, 2025Aug 4, 2025$243

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.